Spot futures gained 11.3% for the year. Slowed U.S. weekly export sales still left 2017-18 commitments up 2.441 million RB from a year ago. Shipments hit crop year high. U.S. discount widened a bit in Far East.
Cotton futures settled mixed ahead of another long holiday weekend Friday, with spot March finishing with the only loss but still registering its 10th weekly gain in a row.
March closed down 17 points at 78.63 cents, just above the middle of its tight 71-point range from down 58 points at 78.22 to up 31 points at 78.93 cents. It gained 76 points for the week and 582 points or 8% for the month.
For the year, spot cotton futures advanced 798 points or 11.3%. May inched up eight points for the day and rose by 92 points for the week, settling at 78.96 cents, while July gained 19 and 90 points, respectively, to close at 79.24 cents.
The other contracts finished with gains for the day of 11-to-26 points, led by December 2018 on a close at 74.51 cents after it had touched a new contract high at 74.69 cents.
Volume increased to an electronically estimated 20,800 lots from 19,566 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 19,566 lots or 36%, EFS 250 lots and EFP 41 lots.
The market showed little reaction to weekly U.S. export sales-shipments data. All-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 176,500 running bales during the week ended Dec. 21, down from 337,700 RB the previous week, brought 2017-18 commitments to 11.051 million RB.
This narrowed the margin by which commitments — outstanding sales of 7.86 million RB plus shipments — exceed year-earlier cumulative sales by 171,000 RB to 2.441 million RB, still up 28%.
Commitments reached about 77% of the USDA export projection, compared with about 59% of final 2016-17 shipments at the corresponding point last season. Weekly sales came in about as expected for a change.
Sales for shipment next season of 32,500 RB pushed the total for both crop years to 209,000 RB and 2018-19 commitments to 1.179 million RB. The lead over forward bookings a year ago widened to 614,000 RB.
All-cotton shipments jumped to a marketing year high of 296,900 RB, up from the prior week’s 163,300 RB, with upland exports of 276,700 RB rising to the largest since the week ended July 20. Exports for the season stand at 3.191 million RB.
The gap behind exports a year ago narrowed fractionally to 558,000 RB as shipments rose to 22% of the USDA projection. A year ago, shipments were 26% of final 2016-17 exports.
To achieve the USDA estimate, exports need to average roughly 360,100 RB a week over the 31 weeks remaining in the marketing year. Weekly sales averaging around 106,600 RB would match the shipments forecast.
On the competitive pricing front, the average of the five lowest-priced world growths for the Far East advanced 262 points to 87.67 cents during the week ended Thursday, while the lowest-quoted U.S. cotton landed there gained 247 points to 87.42 cents.
The U.S. discount thus widened 15 points to 0.25 of a cent. The adjusted world price for the marketing week ending next Thursday as calculated by USDA is 70.62 cents, reflecting transportation and quality differentials, and of course leaves the marketing loan gain at zero.
The fine count adjustment on 2017-crop cotton for qualities better than 31-3-35 is 48 points. This is based on differences between premiums in U.S. and international markets.
Futures open interest increased 432 lots to 278,997 on Thursday, with March’s down 1,160 lots to 174,684 and May’s up 1,035 lots to 52,568. Certified stocks remained at 47,601 bales.
Source: Agfax