DTN Cotton Close: Lower in Current-Crop Deliveries
DTN Cotton Close: Lower in Current-Crop Deliveries

DTN Cotton Close: Lower in Current-Crop Deliveries

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Talk of slowed export inquiries heightened interest in the delayed U.S. weekly export sales report. Increase forecast in U.S. cotton area. Concern voiced over dry soils in Texas Plains.

Cotton futures settled mixed Thursday, with current-crop deliveries finishing lower and new-crop contracts from December and beyond closing on the plus side.

Spot March slipped 33 points to close at 81.88 cents, near the low of its 108-point range from up 58 points at 82.85 to down 50 points at 81.88 cents. This was its lowest close since Jan. 16.

May settled down 33 points at 82.58 cents, trading within a 105-point range from 83.47 cents to 82.42 cents, and July dipped 30 points to finish at 83.06 cents. December hit a new contract high at 76.24 cents and edged up 15 points to close at 76.01 cents.

Volume slowed to an estimated 35,500 lots from 50,805 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 35,772 lots or 70%, EFP 322 lots and EFS 15 lots. Options volume declined to 4,753 lots (1,572 calls and 3,181 puts) from 6,812 lots (4,324 calls and 2,488 puts).

Talk of slowed export inquiries following the Jan. 12 outside-range reversal to the downside in spot March has heightened interest in USDA’s delayed weekly sales report, set for release at 7:30 a.m. CST on Friday.

Some expectations are for net upland sales to slip from the prior week’s stronger-than-expected 275,100 running bales on gross sales of 328,300 RB and cancellations of 53,300 RB. Cancellations of 38,300 RB were reported for China.

Upland sales have averaged a net 226,800 RB the last four weeks and shipments have averaged 264,200 RB after posting back-to-back weeks of marketing year highs. Prices during the latest reporting week remained within the 435-point range of Jan. 12 and ended the period little changed.

All-cotton 2017-18 export commitments stand about 26% above cumulative sales a year ago but shipments, hampered partly by a shortage of trucks, lag about 10% behind last season’s pace.

Looking ahead, several private estimates have indicated U.S. producers intend to increase cotton plantings this spring. Cotton prices, bolstered by strong exports and growing world demand, look favorable in relation to other crops.

Informa Economics, Memphis-based analytical firm, has forecast all-cotton acreage at 13.458 million, sources said, up 6.7% from 12.612 million acres planted last year. Upland acreage is estimated at 13.2 million, up from 12.36 million acres in 2017.

Dry soils in the Texas High Plains have caused concern amid forecasts that dry conditions are expected to persist in the months just ahead. Producers in the semi-arid High Plains planted 4.38 million acres of cotton last year, 35% of the U.S. upland area.

More than 40% of Texas, the top cotton-producing state, is in moderate to severe drought, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Droughty conditions prevail in most of the U.S. Cotton Belt.

The National Cotton Council will report on its survey of planting intentions during its annual meeting on Feb. 10 in Fort Worth and USDA’s prospective plantings report will be released on March 29.

Futures open interest grew 4,581 lots to a new record 319,205 on Wednesday, with March’s down 5,003 lots to 160,281 and May’s up 7,118 lots to 82,681. Certified stocks were unchanged at 48,431 bales.

Source: Agfax

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