By Keith Brown DTN Cotton Correspondent 

The cotton market closed higher Thursday as New Year’s optimism for a singed China deal emotionally fed into the trade. On Tuesday last, President Donald Trump announced there would be a formal signing of the phase one deal in a White House ceremony on Jan. 15. This fundamental news, along with the strong current uptrend, is encouraging traders of various stripes to buy long.

To the latter point, the technical indication for speculators to move from bearish to bullish was that decisive chart close above the 200-day moving average in mid-December. The latest CFTC data has speculators now net long 18,000-plus contracts.

The market is also anticipating Friday’s sales and exports data. Given the holiday environment, those export sales numbers may not be that flashy, but every little bit helps. Already 2019/2020 sales have been running higher than USDA’s seasonal projection, as well as higher than the five-year average. After the report is released, and depending on its dynamics, the market is apt to turn in for the weekend.

For a first quarter perspective, within the coming 90 days the market will see three crop reports, a signed trade deal with China, and 2020 planting intentions. Additionally, there will be news that impacts foreign crops, as well as U.S. economic data.

For Thursday, March cotton closed at 69.27 cents, up .22, July ended at 71.34 cents, up .39, and December settled at 71.23 cents, up .87. Today’s estimated volume was 36,606 contracts traded.