December hit 31-session high. A killing freeze in most of the Texas High Plains would facilitate plant dry-down and expedite stripper harvesting. China’s 2017 cotton imports through September reported up 38%.
Cotton futures settled mixed Tuesday, down 18 to up 51 points across the board, with December off the most after touching a 31-session high.
December closed with a slight loss at 69.54 cents, just below the midpoint of its 120-point range from down 70 points at 69.02 cents to up 50 points at 70.22 cents. It stayed within the range established by early morning trading after touching the highest intraday price since Sept. 11.
March, the only other contract in the red, eased six points to close at 69.13 cents, in the upper half of its 92-point range from 68.54 to 69.46 cents. May eked up three points to settle at 70.08 cents and July edged up nine points to finish at 70.68 cents.
Traders continued to keep an eye on weather forecasts for U.S. cotton areas and to digest news of an increase in price supports for cotton farmers in India, the world’s largest cotton producer and the major cotton exporter of South Asia.
Volume slipped to an estimated 35,190 lots from 54,915 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 21,452 lots or 39%, EFS 1,080 lots and EFP 157 lots. Options volume dropped to 8,464 lots (3,450 calls and 5,014 puts) from 15,273 lots (8,860 calls and 6,413 puts).
A killing freeze expected across most of the remainder of the Texas High Plains cotton patch that missed an earlier dip to and below the freezing mark will facilitate plant dry-down and expedite once-over stripper harvesting.
The preponderance of the 69% of the Texas crop reported still on the stalk as of Sunday is in the Texas High and Rolling Plains, as are most of the 20% unopened bolls statewide.
Production in the four crop reporting districts has been estimated by USDA at a combined 6.585 million bales, based on conditions around Oct. 1. That amounted to 73% of the projected Texas crop and 32% of the U.S. upland output. The High Plains crop was pegged at 5.44 million bales, down 255,000 bales from the September estimate.
Lows in the High Plains cotton area are forecast by the National Weather Service at mostly the mid-20s in the north to around 32 degrees in the south on Saturday morning, with a low of 28 foreseen at Lubbock. Some meteorologists say the forecasts may moderate a bit.
While the effects on the crop in some areas will depend upon how long the thermometer stays at or below the freezing mark, the freezes are expected to keep some green, immature bolls from opening.
In international news, China’s cotton imports totaled 92,687 metric tons (425,700 480-pound bales) last month, up 54% on the year, official data showed. This brought imports for the first nine months of the year to 904,479 tons (4.154 million bales), up 38% from the corresponding period last year.
The USDA left its estimate of China’s imports for the 2017-18 marketing year ending July 31 unchanged this month at 5.1 million bales, up slightly from 5.03 million last season.
China’s import policy remains a wildcard, according to USDA. Despite market rumors of possible import access, no official indication of any change has been noted. Cotton mill use in China continues to lead the world, projected up a million bales from 2016-17 to the highest since 2010-11 at 38.5 million bales.
Futures open interest expanded 3,904 lots on Monday’s rally to 231,951, with December’s up 182 lots to 118,608 and March’s up 1,300 lots to 74,179. Decertification of a single bale trimmed stocks in deliverable position to 2,343 bales.
Source: Agfax
