By Keith Brown DTN Cotton Correspondent 

The cotton market finished lower Monday as the U.S. harvest resumed full-on with improving weather. To that end, it is beginning to be accepted that the 2019 cotton crop may still be huge. Last month, USDA reduced the crop by a mere 150,000 bales. A new update from USDA on the supply-demand situation will come on November 8.

Typically, the month of November bears the full brunt of the domestic harvest, but in light of a possible deal with China by mid-November, the possibility of excessive bearishness may be tempered. The fact that current season sales are running ahead of USDA’s forecast says something about stout demand … without China!

Monday afternoon, USDA will update the harvest progress at 4 p.m. Last week the crop was 40% gathered, which is very close to its historical pace.

From all news accounts, it seems to be a coin toss as to whether the U.S. and China will sign a trade deal. Many analysts still believe China may delay its decision on any trade deal until next year in order to get a better grip on the political polls. China thinks it would be in its best interests for a new U.S. president to be elected.

December cotton settled at 64.79 cents, down 0.11 cent, March finished at 65.78 cents, down 0.05 cent, December 2020 ended at 67.18 cents, up 0.06 cent. Estimated volume was 30,545 contracts.