DTN Cotton Close: Slides Amid Overbought Momentum Readings
DTN Cotton Close: Slides Amid Overbought Momentum Readings

DTN Cotton Close: Slides Amid Overbought Momentum Readings

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U.S. upland classing slipped to 1.344 million RB for the week to bring the season’s total to 13.168 million RB, up 13% from a year ago. Tenderable cotton totaled 74% for the season. Harvesting made good progress in the Texas Plains.

Cotton futures settled lower in current-crop contracts for the first time in four sessions Monday, with overbought momentum readings perhaps instilling caution among the bulls and encouraging some profit-taking.

March dropped 72 points to settle at 75.20 cents, just off the low of its 132-point range from up 53 points at 76.45 to down 79 points at 75.13 cents. Lower March U.S. dollar index futures, which traded down 0.225 to 93.240 ahead of the later close for the greenback, didn’t help cotton.

May closed down 66 points to 75.64 cents, trading within a 131-point range from 76.79 to 75.48 cents, and July finished down 56 points to 76.18 cents. The other contracts settled mixed, up 11 to down 18 points, with December 2018 down 14 points at 72.74 cents.

Volume slowed to 25,744 lots from 47,474 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 19,721 lots or 42%, EFP 167 lots and EFP 29 lots. Options volume declined to 6,433 lots (4,337 calls and 2,096 puts) from 15,535 lots (9,353 calls and 6,180 puts).

U.S. upland classing slipped to 1.344 million running bales last week from 1.555 million RB the prior week as the season’s total rose to 13.168 million RB, up 13% from 11.675 million RB graded a year ago, according to the latest figures from USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service.

Gins submitting samples for grading services dipped to 459 from 475 the week before. Tenderable cotton slipped to 67% for the week and 74% for the season, compared with 72.4% and 71.6%, respectively, a year ago.

Classing of 53,090 RB of Pima, up from the prior week’s 48,038 RB, hiked the season’s extra-long staple total to 333,707 RB and the all-cotton count to 13.556 million RB, up from 12.031 million RB last year.

Most of the cotton remaining on the stalk is in Texas, where some analysts have voiced skepticism that upland production can achieve the record 9.5 million bales forecast by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Classing of 555,150 RB of upland in Texas, down from 600,629 RB the week before, brought the total for the season to 5.368 million RB, up 16% from 4.61 million RB graded a year ago. Cotton meeting tenderable requirements totaled 45.2% for the week and 60.6% for the season.

Final harvesting made good progress under mostly sunny skies in the Texas High and Rolling Plains. Daytime high temperatures ranged mostly from the mid-50s to low-70s and nighttime lows mostly around the freezing mark.

Modules dotted the countryside and accumulated on gin yards. Yields remained variable, with some fields producing up to 5 bales per acre as expected and others falling short of production estimates.

Additional module fires burned an undetermined amount of cotton. There have been more of these than usual this season, mainly because of dry conditions and finer fiber. The region’s last significant rainfall was 35 to 90 days ago, depending upon location.

Ginning progressed in South Texas, where rain was in the forecast. The Corpus Christi classing office is operating one shift to keep pace with the reduced amount of sample receipts. Ginning also continued in the Blackland Prairies.

Harvesting reached about 70% off the stalk and ginning around 20% completed in Kansas. Gins operated two shifts for 12 hours each and found it difficult to keep pace with the exceptionally large amount of modules.

Futures open interest expanded 4,489 lots to 266,156 on Friday, with March’s up 326 lots to 171,049 and May’s up 1,876 to 150,197. Certified stocks remained at 47,628 bales.

Source: Agfax

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