By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst 

Cotton was turned on its head Tuesday as bearish influences stemming from the Chicago grains, the Dow Jones, the U.S. dollar and energy complex converged to hook the market lower. Earlier in the session, cotton was materially higher, believing adverse weather conditions were setting the national crop back. Given that situation may still be true, with all the outside calamities unfolding, there was no way cotton would hold up alone.

Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to make landfall in Florida early Wednesday. South Georgia growers are fearful heavy downpours will further deteriorate the crop. From there, the storm will move into the Carolinas, and then out to sea. With that expectation, we note, the one- five-day forecast shows widespread rains from Texas to the Delta to the Southeast.

There will be extremely heavy bands of rain along the Atlantic coast. The six- to 10- and eight- 14-day forecasts call for below-normal temperatures and normal- to above-normal precipitation in those areas.

Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed managed money traders were net buyers of 9,304 contracts of cotton for the week ending June 29, increasing their net long position to 53,494.

Tuesday afternoon USDA will issue its latest update on the condition of the 2021 crop. Last week the national crop was rated 52% good to excellent.

Tuesday, July cotton closed at 86.38 cents up 1.02 cents, December settled 87.40 cents, up 0.43 cent and March 2022 ended at 87.22 cents, 0.16 cent higher; estimated volume was 32,780 contracts.