By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst 

It seems for the past several sessions the cotton market has been strong early (higher prices) but finished weak late (lower prices) in the day. Reasons for such seesaw behavior may include the wobbly outside markets, such as the Dow, gold, crude and the U.S. dollar. Of course, cotton needs new direct positive news for its own influence. That latter opportunity may come this Thursday when USDA will issue its weekly export-sales. Currently 2020-21 sales are running at 95% of USDA’s new target. That new target (15.75 million bales) is the latest increase in exports the government just altered in its April crop report.

The market is also anticipating Monday’s notice period for spot May cotton. With an open interest of some 14,000 contracts, a lot of squaring of positions must be done by Friday’s settlement.

Also, this Friday the CFTC will issue its commitment of traders. Traders are anticipating the report to reflect increased speculative buying from the managed-money funds given the market has recently been on a upside tear.

COVID-19 cases in India are ramping higher. Our contact there told us that the situation in India is getting dire. Possibly the virus could impede the planting of the 2021 crop, but more likely the spinning mills in the larger cities. Allegedly worldwide COVID has caused the deaths of some 3 million people. Historically, however, the Spanish Flu of the early 1900s era killed some 55 million people, and there was no international air-travel in those days.

Tuesday, May cotton closed at 83.77 cents, up 0.51 cent, July settled at 85.17 cents, up 0.46 cent and December ended at 83.06 cents, up 0.56 cent; estimated volume was 23,825 contracts.