By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst 

The cotton market closed markedly higher Monday as concerns about the potential punch from Hurricane Sally, as well as a weakening U.S. dollar, kept prices positive all Monday. In addition, there were lingering “positive vibes” from Friday’s supply/demand report, which also supported prices. Within that data, the U.S. 2020 crop was pegged at 17.02 million bales, far below USDA’s call of last month and well below the industry average guess of 17.57 million bales. However, the government did pare its exports category, which kept domestic ending stocks above 7.0 million bales.

The U.S. dollar weakened Monday on comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin regarding how the economy should not worry about the ballooning U.S. deficit nor any new stimulus spending. The issuance of additional government COVID-19 support will serve to dilute the buying power of the dollar. Technically, the trend of the dollar has been down based on previous COVID-19 spending, as well as polls that indicate former Vice President Joe Biden is leading the presidential election.

Monday afternoon, USDA will update the condition of the 2020 crop. A key number in that data will be the “bolls open category,” especially for the Delta crop. Last week, Mississippi stood at 42% open versus the prior week of 38% and the five-year average of 50%. Louisiana was 73% open compared to the previous 62%, with a five-year average of 77%. The obvious concern is how Sally’s strong winds and rains affect the Delta as it moves inland.

For Monday, December cotton closed at 66.62 cents, up 1.81 cents, March finished at 67.46 cents, up 1.68 cents and December 2021 settled at 66.78 cents, up 1.58 cents higher. Estimated volume was 40,276 contracts.