By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst 

The cotton market kept afloat Wednesday as some traders anticipated the eventual hurdling of the 69.50-cent area. Since Monday the December market has consecutively posted daily highs of 69.45 cents, 69.35 cents and Wednesday’s 69.37 cents, in an effort to clear that all-important psychological level. Some traders feel once that price has “jumped” on a closing basis, the market would be technically free to pursue the 70-cent mark.

The U.S. dollar continues to skew sideways. For example, Wednesday’s trade for the dollar was 9337, while on this past July 31 it was 9334. During this time, export sales for U.S. cotton has been on the rise, with China as a dominant participant. Summarily, as China initiates efforts to fully reopen its economy, as well as other Asian countries, it is fair to expect U.S. cotton sales could swell in the coming weeks. Yet, another additional incentive for increased Chinese buying of U.S. cotton would relate to its import obligations under the phase-one trade treaty signed Jan. 15 of this year. Interestingly, December cotton’s contract 2020 high fell on Jan. 13, at 73.00 cents.

The six- to 10-day weather forecast calls for above normal precipitation stretching from central Texas, across the U.S. Delta and into the Southeast. With USDA currently reporting the nation’s cotton crop is some 80% bolls open, the obvious implication is the possibility of more, if not yield loss, then certainly additional quality damage.

For Wednesday, December cotton closed at 68.93 cents, up 0.10 cent, March ended at 69.72 cents, up 0.08 cent and December 2021 cotton finished at 68.77 cents, down 0.10 cent. Estimated volume was 22,335 contracts.