By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst 

The cotton market somewhat split apart Tuesday as old crop July was higher, while new crop December finished down. Of course, July is being driven by its impending delivery. Thus, all participants who wish to avoid delivery tonight, had to exit their long positions. On the other hand, December is being influenced by USDA’s acres data coming on the June 30. To that end, traders are watching emerging weather situations across the Cotton Belt, as to whether any those episodes will either add or subtract from potential yield.

The six- to 10-day forecast is also splintered to some degree, the Texas Panhandle looks to have above-normal temperatures, while central Texas may see below-normal temperatures. The Delta and Southeast look to experience above-normal temperatures. For rain prospects, the Southeast, the Delta, and central Texas may experience above normal rainfall, while extreme West Texas and into the panhandle will see below normal chances.

The next major anticipation for the market will be Thursday’s export-sales. Of late, sales have been running so strong that USDA may be forced to increase its exports category on a future supply/demand report. However, there is news China may soon require inspections and affidavits on certain agriculture purchases. This attitude has traders worried that grains, cotton and pork may get tied up in some sort of dispute. Overall, cotton prices have declined about 16% this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which stifled global economic activity and consumption. Additionally, there are growing tensions between the U.S. and China on a host of geopolitical issues.

July cotton settled at 63.04 cents, up 0.52 cent, December ended at 59.44 cents, down 0.41 cent and March finished at 60.13 cents, down 0.45 cent. Estimated volume was 20,303 contracts.