Washington, DC — Cotton production estimates have decreased significantly since last month, dropping from 25.9 million tonnes to 25.5 million tonnes, while shifts in trade patterns and demands from retailers and brands are making cotton's origin increasingly important.

The decrease in production is largely coming from three countries: the United States (-400,000 tonnes), Pakistan (-100,000 tonnes), and Sudan (-50,000 tonnes). Water shortages and unusually dry weather are the issues for the US and Pakistan, while Sudan's crop damage is the result of pest infestations.

Although consumption and trade numbers are largely unchanged from last month, import and export partners are shifting. China accounted for 40% of US cotton exports in 2023/24, but that number has dropped to 8% as the US has increased its trade with Vietnam, Pakistan, Turkey, and India. Those changes — combined with a US executive order that allows products made from US raw materials to be exempted from import tariffs — mean textile manufacturers must provide traceability. Retailers and brands are increasingly demanding traceability as well.

There are two other notable developments since last month:

• India’s levels of cotton lint imports increased by nearly 3.3 times in 2024/25 compared to the prior season.
• Bangladesh and India are expected to increase their US imports.