Washington, DC — It's a bit early in the process to get overly excited, but if the initial ICAC forecast holds true, the 2024/25 season will be posting gains in area, production, consumption, and trade. The biggest wild card, as it has been for the last few years, is the weather. 

Weather is also the reason for the one cotton area that is likely to show a decline: yields, which are expected to decrease 0.12% to 768 kg/ha. Global cotton yield has been dropping since the 2017/18 season, likely due to extreme weather caused by global climate change and pest pressures brought on by adverse weather conditions, also a result of global climate problems.

Projections for the 2024/25 season include:

• Area should post a 3% increase over 2023/24 at 32.85 million hectares.
• Production is showing an increase of just over 2.5% at 25.22 million tons.
• Consumption is forecasted to increase 2.9% to 25.37 million tons.
• Trade (imports and exports) is currently forecasted to increase nearly 4% over the 2023/24 cotton season to 9.94 million tons.

Price Projections

The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A-index for 2023/24 ranges from 85.67 cents to 100.62 cents, with a midpoint of 92.20 cents per pound.