Executive Summary

Highlights from the January edition of Cotton This Month regarding the 2018/19 season:

• The midpoint for the 2018/19 price forecast is 86.45 cents/lb, down from last month’s forecast of 89 cents
• The price forecast has a range from 75.60 cents to 100.21 cents
• The projection reflects a 95% confidence interval
• The forecast is based various assumptions, including global consumption, ending stocks, and world trade

ICAC Revises Its Price Forecast to 86.45 cents

With a confidence interval of 95%, the Secretariat of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has set its 2018/19 price forecast for cotton fibre at 86.45 cents per pound, down from 89 cents in December 2018.

The forecast, which has a price range from a low of 75.60 cents to a high of 100.21 cents, is based on the following assumptions:

• World cotton consumption will be 26.7 million tonnes.
• World cotton ending stocks will be 18.2 million tonnes.
• World trade will be 9.4 million tonnes.
• China’s cotton consumption will be 8.45 million tonnes.
• Ending stocks in China will be 7.66 million tonnes, and
• China’s cotton imports will total 1.6 million tonnes.

World Cotton Supply and Demand