In the first week of June, ICE and ZCE cotton futures market was firm evidently, up above 61cent/lb and 12,000yuan/mt respectively. However, looking at the short-term supply and demand of cotton textile market, cotton prices lack the support for sustained increases. The outbreak of locust plagues in India and Pakistan seems to be one of the few factors driving cotton prices. According to the cotton planting progress, weather condition, and the moving path of locusts in India and Pakistan, the global market may continue to be oversupplied, and the influences on global cotton production are supposed to be limited, giving limited support to cotton prices.

1. Active measures taken by India and Pakistan on locust control

According to the May report of Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, successive waves of spring-bred swarms from Iran and Pakistan will arrive in Rajasthan throughout June with additional swarms coming from East Africa to Gujarat and Rajasthan from early July onwards.　Locusts that arrive in advance of the monsoon rains are likely to settle in cropping areas or continue eastwards to Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and perhaps as far east as Bihar and Odisha.　The locusts in the central northern states will oscillate east and westwards before returning to Rajasthan with the onset of the monsoon in early July.　Swarm mobility will decline as they mature and lay eggs in Rajasthan.　Early breeding could produce hopper bands by the end of the forecast period.

It is reported that about 300,000 square kilometers in Pakistan are vulnerable to desert locust attacks, 60% of which is in Balochistan, 25% in Sindh, and 15% in Cholistan, Punjab.

At present, the Punjab government has allocated 1 billion rupees to prevent crops from being attacked by locusts in mid-June and July. More than 775,000 acres of land in Punjab have been sprayed with pesticides, and it has set up first-level control rooms in the districts.

Similarly, in India, Rajasthan, Punjab, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh, locusts have damaged 50,000 hectares of crops, and the cotton crops has been damaged. Some farmers are facing the dilemma of food harvest.

To combat desert locusts, India has deployed 89 pesticide spraying fire brigades, 120 survey vehicles, 47 control vehicles with spray equipment and 810 tractor-mounted sprayers to effectively control locusts. In Gujarat, Rajasthan and Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab, and Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, the authorities have sprayed 55,542 hectares of pesticides using professional vehicles and fire engines.

According to FAO, more than 332,000 hectares of land in May has taken corresponding locust control measures, and the data was 305,000 hectares in Apr. Among them, India is 54,000 hectares, Pakistan is 76,000 hectares.

2. Cotton planting and weather in India and Pakistan

(1) Pakistan

As of June 1, cotton planting areas have reached 2.186 million hectares in 2020, about 82.1% of the target, which was down by 10.1%. The planting progress in Sindh was significantly slower. With reference to Pakistan’ cotton area planting target and actual planting situation in recent years and the current status of Pakistan’ domestic cotton industry, it is highly probable that the cotton planting area in 2020/21 will still fail to achieve the corresponding target, and Pakistan’s cotton planting area may continue to decline.

According to the rainfall in the main cotton producing areas of Pakistan, such as Sangal, Bahavarnagar and Rahim Yar Khan in previous years, the rainfall was relatively good in the first five months of this year, which may be beneficial to cotton planting and growth, but the monsoon rainfall may come until July. Currently, cotton planting has completed 80%, and the impact of locusts on Pakistani cotton may see later.

(2) India

As of June 4, cotton planting areas have reached 1.6692 million hectares, an increase of 317,400 hectares compared with the previous year. This year, farmers have a high enthusiasm for cotton planting, and the planting areas have reached a new high in recent years. The damage of locusts to Rajasthan may be compensated to some extent by the increase of its planting area. However, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Trangana state (cotton production accounts for about 72%) have not yet begun to plant in large quantities, and the current impact of locusts is relatively small.

In addition, rainfall in the main cotton producing areas of India is relatively normal this year. As of June 3, rainfall in the main cotton producing regions of India (90.2%) was 21.4 mm, an increase of 155% from the normal level. The monsoon rains in India are coming earlier than in previous years. Monsoon rainfall in the later period of 3-4 months may inhibit locusts from continuing to migrate and reproduce to other major cotton producing areas in India. The impact of locusts on Indian cotton appears to be relatively small currently.

In summary, Pakistan has now completed more than 80% of its cotton planting, and monsoon rains may come in July. The locusts may have greater impact on Pakistani cotton. In India, the major cotton-producing regions have not yet begun mass planting, and the monsoon rains come earlier this year and last long, which will inhibit the migration and reproduction of locusts to a certain extent, and will have less impact on cotton. In addition, both India and Pakistan take active control operations. In short, the impact of the locusts on cotton production in India and Pakistan may be limited, and the oversupplied situation may continue, giving limited room for cotton prices up.