John Robinson, Extension economist, cotton marketing 

The price outlook for U.S. cotton depends on both supply and demand outcomes. This time of the year, the market’s focus is more on the supply side. How many acres of U.S. cotton will be planted? How many will be harvested? What will be the average yield per harvested acre? 

The answer to those two questions depends a lot on the planting and growing conditions, which are obviously influenced by weather. In areas like the Delta region, the key early season conditions involve how wet it is. But in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, it frequently comes down to how dry it is at planting time. This can be influenced by global climate patterns like La Niña.

La Niña is the name given to a climate pattern when the equatorial Pacific Ocean is cooler than normal. The red line in Figure 1 shows the historical and predicted temperature fluctuations of the equatorial Pacific waters. This projected pathway implies a minor and short-lived dip in Pacific Ocean temperatures, coinciding with early planting in the U.S. When this happens, it tends to be drier than normal, especially during the first and second quarters of the year.  

After that, the temperatures are forecast to be in the neutral range, suggesting “normal” weather. 

The official January forecast from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center reads: “La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance).”

So, what does this all mean? Because of the possibility of early dryness, I would assume a slightly above-average level of abandonment, e.g., I would assume 17% of planted acres will not be harvested. I would also assume an average yield of 800 pounds per harvested acre. Regardless of how you slice and dice your assumptions, it is easy to wind up with something approaching a 16 million bale U.S. crop. If that happens, then we better have a pickup in demand, or else we will see increasing ending stocks and weaker prices. 

For additional thoughts on these and other cotton marketing topics, please visit my weekly on-line newsletter at http://agrilife.org/cottonmarketing/.