Looking at the progression of commodities over the last few months, one wonders which fairy has bent over their cradles or is it not rather a Faustian pact? 

Indeed, everything seems to benefit our markets, which are flying from record to record without anything seeming able to stop this progression. 

This evolution can largely be explained by the post COVID catch-up, logistical difficulties, less abundant harvests than expected, the return of inflation... but are these elements really sufficient to explain this fundamental movement? 

The case of fertilizers is symptomatic, after years of production at very low prices, the value of fertilizers has literally exploded in recent months against the backdrop of international sanctions for potash, and a massive rise in the price of gas for nitrogen. However, in a few weeks urea has fallen from $1,000 to $550 before bouncing slightly last week. 

There is no fundamental justification for such volatility in such fragile markets, especially when the indicators start to blink. 

The cotton market is no exception to the rule, with prices continuing to rise, although the scarcity of the product should not be considered as the main reason for this increase. 

It is true that demand remains strong in all markets and India will undoubtedly need to import far more than expected. This week's export report from the USDA demonstrates this. 

The temporary closure of the borders of Burkina Faso and Mali, which together account for more than 40% of West African production, may also weigh on prices in the coming weeks. 

However, the world will not be short of cotton and the level of oil prices still guarantees the competitiveness of cotton. 

The real question lies in the continued rise in "Basis" which have doubled for certain origins in order to compensate, in particular, for the increase in freight. 

The rise in American interest rates has allowed the dollar to reach new heights, no doubt in anticipation of a rise in ECB rates. 

We should not go looking for the last penny in search of a happiness that we would like to believe will last forever, without protecting ourselves against a fall in prices. The last boom in our market in 2011 did not prevent it from being "shredded" during ten years...