The buzzword at the beginning of this year is Exponential, everything is growing so fast that one feels obliged to justify it scientifically. 

After having grown exponentially, COVID is now decreasing at a slower rate, but the lack of virulence of the new variants has put the endemic back on the agenda. 

The near exponential growth of inflation is a continuing concern for all central banks. In the United States, the FED is meeting today to probably increase its key rates and try to curb this alarming spiral. For its part, the ECB seems less receptive to the dangers that rising prices pose to all economies, it must be said that its Director is now expected to be the potential Prime Minister of Emmanuelle Macron. Yet the social signals are turning red one after the other. 

The freight crisis is tending exponentially towards chaos. After a slight upturn in some areas, tensions are once again emerging. However, it seems that the number of containers going back empty to Asia is constantly increasing. The real question is how this interminable crisis will end and for whose benefit. For the time being, we have to beg for boxes, beg for time allowances in order to be able to load or unload without paying penalties, which have also risen sharply. The freight crisis has dangerously eroded the profitability of many traders who have sold on basis that have no relation to the current cost structure. Today, rather than trading commodities, the business is more about trading available freight with no negotiating capacity. 

In this respect it is interesting to note that the structure of the ICE on cotton makes the near end more expensive than the far end. However, no one can say what freight will cost in the coming weeks, which is driving the basis inexorably upwards. 

The gap between July and December 2022 is starting to narrow as the price structure continues to favour all crops, led by grains, but including cotton. So, the report issued by the NCC this weekend can be considered as a non-event as the increase is marginal: 7%. All players are already looking ahead to the December 2022 deadline, which should continue to rise, especially if weather conditions deteriorate at planting time. The US dollar has recovered after losing ground against all currencies in anticipation of an interest rate hike. 

On the sporting side, the word of the day is "exhilarating", whether to describe the France-Ireland rugby match or the Rams' victory in the Super Bowl, where the suspense and pleasure were exponential as the games progressed. 

On this Valentine's Day we hope that love will also grow exponentially, or at least that it will make us forget for an evening the sound of war being heard around.