One can say that Ian Fleming was quite a visionary! Well before anyone else, he had foreseen the state of the world and in particular that of the commodities markets in 2022. 

His "From Russia with love" to the Ukraine, where terror, chaos, blood and death reign, has caused a real international cataclysm. The "Spectre" of a third world war or even a nuclear confrontation is more present every day. All commodity markets, always at the forefront during armed conflicts, are massively impacted against a backdrop of galloping inflation that nothing can stem. 

All financial markets look like a "Casino Royale", all commodity exchanges are soaring on the back of speculation. 

However, it seems that the rules of the game are changing depending on the players. In this respect, the misadventure of the Tsingshan group is edifying; trapped by its huge speculative position on Nickel, the group only owes its salvation to the closing of the LME and an agreement on a market level that makes the loss incurred more bearable... "You only live twice"! 

Like all agricultural commodities, cotton is soaring, driven by the thunderous return of speculation which sees cotton reach new heights based on both fundamental and technical data : 

• The drought in Texas, which has led to fears of a massive drop in production in this region, which accounts for more than 40% of American production. 
• Climatic hazards in the rest of the production areas. 
• The increase in the cost of phytosanitary products, inputs and seeds, which has led to a sharp rise in cost prices, leaving producers with little room for maneuver. 
• A demand which is not denied while the profitability for the spinners is not guaranteed any more so much the prices of the yarn have difficulty to follow the soaring of the cotton. 
• A market structure where the sales in price to be fixed are still very (too) important with a dreaded deadline : the liquidation of July 2022. Indeed, the latter marks the transition between the new and the old crop and this morning the gap between the two peaked at 24 USC/Lb. 
• The lack of availability of cotton, whatever its origin, makes all the actors of the sector very nervous. 
• The sharp rise in food commodity prices and the doubts generated by the war on Russian and Ukrainian exports for the next campaign. Grain and oilseed prices are at levels rarely reached. 

However, international uncertainties, whether in the East or in the West, should limit the demand for manufactured products, which is clearly overestimated. At this stage, it is feared that prices will experience a "Skyfall". 

The current international disorder is likely to have major economic consequences, particularly due to the end of the Doha Round and the inward-looking attitude of states in economic matters, which began during the COVID crisis. 

Let's not forget that even in a very deleterious environment, "tomorrow never dies".