For many observers, 9th of May appears to be a pivotal date in the war raging in Ukraine; it could just as well be the end of operations, as a symbol of the end of the "war against Nazism", or on the contrary, it could escalate to the point where it could lead the world to its first nuclear confrontation. 

But either way, the consequences will be phenomenal for all countries. All the major Ukrainian ports are destroyed or under a deluge of bombs and can no longer operate. If Russia maintains its production forecasts, it is difficult to say which countries will be able to be regularly supplied by it because of the sanctions imposed. 

In such a context, one can legitimately ask the question of why produce cotton. Indeed, given the humanitarian emergency of feeding more than 7 billion people, clothing them may seem futile. 

It is a given that production will be less abundant on almost all continents, particularly in the USA where the drought in Texas suggests the worst. But Brazil and Argentina are also affected. The rise in the price of all food products will tip the balance in their favour when it comes to planting. It should be pointed out that the subsidies granted by African states to fertilisers for cotton may prove counterproductive. Indeed, when famine threatens, who can believe that it is cotton that people need? There is a great risk that subsidised fertilisers will be diverted to vital crops, leading to a drop in yields for all crops. It should be remembered that a decade ago the whole continent was faced with food riots. 

The coming recession will mean a significant drop in cotton consumption. Inflation at nearly 10%, a return to full employment and wage pressures will quickly overwhelm growth. The FED and the Bank of England fought with their weapons by raising their key rates. But the very next day these efforts, although massive, already appeared insufficient in the face of full employment in the US. The US dollar thus continues to soar against all currencies. Some people think that crypto-currencies, which continue to flourish, are a panacea. It is worth noting that there are more than 10,500 of these "new currencies" compared to 180 currencies minted by governments. Backed by nothing but their own tampering, they could quickly contribute to other kinds of social and ecological disorder. 

The decline in cotton over the past week is undoubtedly due to macro-economic factors, including successive declines in the equity markets. The price of yarn is now struggling to keep up with cotton prices and in the face of such volatility all importing markets have limited their orders. 

To sum up, we can say that production and consumption will fall together, exogenous elements will continue to weigh on prices, which will encourage volatility in the weeks to come.