We may be living in a historic moment in a troubled context: Euro is worth less than one US Dollar. What for some might seem an unimportant intermediate step is for others a mortifying element for "old Europe" which is struggling to reinvent itself. 

The vertiginous rise of the greenback sounds the death knell for all countries with a trade and/or payments deficit. Every dollar disbursed will weigh on public finances and fuel inflation. 

In Europe, all eyes are on the ECB, whose reaction is expected to match the stakes. Indeed, it is a matter of quickly trying to bridge the interest rate gap with the US without mortgaging the chances of recovery by increasing the debt burden, which is the corollary of the rise in interest rates. 

The equation is further complicated by the fact that Europeans are on the front line of the energy crisis that is materializing day by day. The main fuel for inflation is gas, the price of which continues to soar. Based on the COVID experience, the states are bringing back the "whatever it takes" approach to smooth out the impact on consumers. 

Meanwhile, the war is becoming more and more blackmailed and despicable, with no end in sight. 

The sea freight crisis has brought the famous axiom of "mutualisation of losses and privatization of profits" back to the forefront. 

Indeed, the insane profits of the world's three largest shipowners, who are European, remind us that these companies were able to take advantage of generous privatizations but above all of the most advantageous taxation of the 27. Rather than acting like “Harpagon” in search of a new golden paradigm, is it not time to return to the notion of service and public good to allow the self-regulation of a sector for the benefit of all? 

Recession is no longer considered probable but inevitable. To such an extent that the cotton market is inexorably being dragged down as consumption prospects are revised downwards. The severe climatic hazards on all continents are ignored, even though they have a severe impact on production. The traditional "weather market" that we experience at this time has no effect on prices. 

However, in the new equation, the production costs of the new crop will have to be considered. Indeed, who will want to produce cotton in a market where consumption is in free fall and the costs of seeds, inputs, fuel and logistics have at least doubled? 

At this stage we maintain our projections of an equilibrium point around 115USC/Lb for the December 22.