Jean Monnet said: "Men see necessity only in crisis". The global geopolitical context confirms this. 

While the conflict is still raging in Eastern Europe, all Western budgets are seeing a wartime surge in spending on armaments. 

Many questions remain in the management of the energy crisis, as the war seems to have had an electroshock effect on the entire old continent. The search for alternative gas supplies and the hope of finding sovereignty in electricity production is intensifying. 

At the same time, President Biden affirmed his support for Taiwan in a particularly tense context with mainland China. 

In order to continue its fight against inflation, the FED could decide, at its next meeting, to raise its key rates again, despite the threat of recession and the poor performance of the equity markets. The FED is expected to raise rates by another 75 points at the risk of suffocating credit and the recovery. 

The cotton market is also suffering from the current situation: 

• Stocks are low and crops are poor as confirmed by the latest WASDE report, but the economic outlook is so bleak that the ICE is inexorably falling. 
• The coming recession prevents any prospect of development of the textile industry.

Moreover, the situation of spinners is becoming difficult to manage, as their debt capacities have been restricted and their access to foreign currency, especially US dollars, is limited. In all importing countries, credit lines are melting like snow in the sun. 

However, the September WASDE revised US export figures upwards to 13.8 million bales while reducing production estimates in various countries, including Pakistan, which alone lost 700,000 bales due to the dramatic floods in that country, to 5.5 million bales. 

In a deteriorating economic environment, optimism is hard to come by. However, the rebalancing of power in the Ukrainian conflict could lead to a peace of the braves for all parties. Sanctions are hitting Russia hard, limiting its ability to rearm, and the gas weapon will only last for so long. 

Ukraine owes its salvation to the bravery of its population and to Western support, which cannot last forever. Despite everything, we can dream of peace and a resumption of the economy, why not before the end of the year.