The war is redoubling in intensity as the professional meetings of the various raw materials are currently being held. 

The past year can be summarized without any mistake for the different actors of the sector: 

• The producers surprised at the beginning of the year by the extent of the recovery on the markets have "reasonably" taken advantage of the improvement but expect to do better this campaign 
• Traders have achieved a good year which makes us forget the crisis of COVID which had seen the operating accounts deteriorate. 
• Manufacturers, able to increase prices to maintain their margins are satisfied.

However, after the Bremen conference and the AFCOT meetings, the cotton world is experiencing palpable doubts and concerns directly linked to the ongoing war and macro-economic conditions: 

Production is inexorably being revised downwards on all continents, primarily because of climatic conditions, the attraction of other crops, pest attacks or production costs that are constantly increasing. 

For the time being, the basis is resisting because of the high cost of replacement, in spite of anaemic demand. There is no justification for any kind of "sell-off" at this time, as the available cotton supply has also become scarce. 

Spinning mills have not been buying for weeks, terrorized by the prospect of a global recession against a backdrop of inflation. Many mills have reduced their activities while waiting for a clearer picture. 

The face that France showed during the AFCOT between broken down trains and gas stations taken by storm during the strike of the oil refineries workers, has undoubtedly contributed to the ambient sinister, for all that: 

• Shipping companies are telling anyone who will listen that rates will go down and service will improve. 
• What would be the alternative to the definitive closure of the spinning mills if not a return to near normal? 
• The rate hike policy followed by the central banks will undoubtedly be more moderate. The simmering real estate crisis should bring many of the advocates of unlimited rate hikes to their senses. The strength of the dollar is also becoming a concern for the United States. 
• The recession is undeniable and so is the slowdown in the textile industry, but the "nest egg" built up during COVID is still there and should allow activity to be maintained. 
• After a sharp rise in prices, producers usually do not hesitate to increase the area planted, which weighs on the price of the fiber. This year, however, all prices are up and the cost price of a kilo of cotton is also increasing. At the time of choice, this will weigh in favour of other food crops and limit the dropin prices. 

Today there are as many scenarios as there are market participants and no one knows who will be right in the end. One thing is certain: one must not be "in love with one's position" and be ready to adapt to new market conditions.