As 2021 draws to a close, uncertainty about the economic future is growing with two opposing policy lines facing each other. 

• On the one hand, the FED, which now believes that inflation has become structural, is limiting its quantitative easing policy by slowing down its stock buybacks and is considering raising its key rates in an attempt to curb a price increase that seems to be getting out of hand. 
• On the other hand, the ECB considers that the rise in prices is only cyclical and should return to normal without the need to intervene on rates. 

Even if it is difficult to say at this stage who is right and who is wrong, the figure produced by the IMF on world debt in 2020 attracts attention: 226,000 billion dollars, or 256% of world GDP. This figure makes one's head spin, but perhaps some people think that the debt can be paid in crypto-currency... 

Given the enormity of the challenges that the new generations will have to face in order to invent the new world, talking about our markets may seem anecdotal, but in spite of the noise of boots on the borders of Europe and the new banking directives that Basel III is now going to impose, commodities will, as is often the case, make it possible to anticipate what the years to come will be like. What we can remember about our market is : 

• The contraction of the overall position on the ICE, notably a reduction in the speculative buying position as well as a slight reduction in “on call contracts”. 
• A demand which does not deny itself in particular for nearby shipments. 
• A tense situation in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh where demand remains strong 
• The situation on the freight market, far from returning to normal, seems however to be improving against the background of an uninterrupted rise in rates. 

On the input side, prices continue to climb, with gas prices on the rise again. The increase in approach and production costs may eventually pose the problem of producer remuneration. Indeed, if the market were to fall while costs remained high, the spinning mills, constrained by markets for manufactured products that have become fragile, would not be able to increase their purchase prices. In this case, only the producers would suffer the "counter-cost". The focus is now on the prices of the new crop, which are 16 USC per Lb cheaper than those of the current crop. If logic were to be followed, either the current crop would have to fall to the level of the new crop or the new crop would have to rise to current levels. 

This promises us an exciting year in 2022, which we wish you and your loved ones a healthy and happy year.