The US economy is doing well, as the latest job creation figures confirm. But Europe is not to be outdone with encouraging figures. Inflation is falling against a backdrop of stable oil prices and the war in Ukraine. 

It is therefore not surprising to see the FED and the ECB in turn raise their key rates, causing uncertainty for the US dollar. 

Growth, even if reduced, is better than expected, despite a war in Ukraine that is bogged down in the trenches one year after the beginning of the invasion. 

But the textile industry is doing badly, sales are falling and many "dated" brands are disappearing, weighing on overall demand. 

However, even if we must not forget to integrate the general decline in purchasing power, particularly of the middle classes: 

• - China with the end of the Zero COVID policy should allow a return of local demand 
• - The continued fall in food prices should leave a greater share for textiles. 
• - Lower freight prices should prevent price inflation for retailers. However, on the production side, the situation is not much better: 
• - The Nina, which is expected this year, may cause a drop-in production 
• - The increase in all costs of approaches and energy, seeds, phytosanitary products and other fertilizers will weigh heavily on the cost prices of cotton producers. 
• - The delivery figures keep on telling us about the state of Indian, Pakistani and African production, which is undeniably in decline. How can one imagine that Mambo’s production is reduced by half?

This is probably what explains the better than expected export sales figures last week in the United States and above all a clear upturn in activity with an increasingly consistent demand. 

But uncertainty still hangs over the ability of countries such as Pakistan to open letters of credit, with dwindling dollar reserves. The country is caught between its historically low production and its inability to pay in greenbacks. The situation is not far off for Bangladesh where the Indian crop is not available. 

It must be said that Indian production is not delivered to the local spinning mill either. Deliveries are made in dribs and drabs, leaving the risk of a sharp reduction in production. It is therefore not surprising that local basis has risen sharply on the physical market. 

The Wasde to be published next Wednesday should confirm this state of affairs.