Many investors must be saying "Long live the crisis" as they see the results of certain large groups literally soar. Shipping companies, oil companies and luxury goods companies are posting profits that may seem indecent, while other players are seeing their purchasing power plummet.
After a surge in all commodities, a rapid decline has begun on all markets, metals, cereals, cotton, etc. The correction is significant but beneficial for the world economy, which can thus hope to limit the continuous rise in inflation against the backdrop of the recovery of the Chinese manufacturing industry.
It should be noted that some shipping companies, pinned down for their price increases and the disorderly state of the freight market, have agreed to price cuts of 10 to 20% for imports into France. It is to be hoped that this movement will become more widespread as container traffic returns to normal.
"Long live the crisis", think all the world's engineers, who have been called in to find innovative solutions to limit fuel consumption. Thus, the giants of the commodities trade are bringing sailing back into fashion to transport goods.
Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues while a summit for the reconstruction of the country is already underway, whereas a summit for peace would be much more urgent.
In the redistribution of the cards of the international order, the search for alliances between states is becoming a priority. Being caught between two blocks would be uncomfortable, to say the least, as a rapprochement between Russia and China seems inevitable. The creation of a bloc composed of the world's "factory" and "mine" would permanently destabilize the current balance.
The fall in prices has led to a slowdown in trade, due to a lack of demand. All the market players are wondering about the capacity for further decline. For the moment, after a correction of around 25% for the new crop, in a still fragile environment, the real challenge remains to find cotton before the Northern Hemisphere crop (December 2022).
It is true that this sharp drop has caught many producers off guard, as they were expecting to maintain high prices to compensate for the steep rise in production prices.
All crop developments will now be anxiously scrutinized.
The watchword of all markets remains volatility. The uncertainties that guide all countries lead to excessive reactions in search of windfall effects.
Given the upturn in activity in China, the direct aid to consumption in many countries, and the stabilization of oil prices in particular, we remain reasonably confident in a sustained recovery in prices.
Source: Mambo