The current world seen from France, which is facing a major institutional crisis, appears gloomy and anxietyprovoking. 

The war in Ukraine continues with no prospect of peace despite President Xi's visit today to President Putin. China may have the beginnings of a possible resolution despite the blandness of its first draft of a peace plan. A subsequent visit to Kiev would be a strong signal to try to find a way out of a conflict in which hundreds of thousands of people have been killed and injured. 

On the periphery of this conflict there are many tensions and the destruction of a drone in international airspace is nothing compared to the icy diplomatic relations between blocs and the disappearance in Libya of 2.5 tons of uranium. 

But the major risk of the last few days lies in the global economic situation. The decision of the central banks to give priority to curbing inflation by massively raising interest rates has caused a banking tsunami. For the first time we are witnessing bailouts between competing banks that have no choice but to help each other to avoid a devastating spread. Unfortunately, who can still believe that all the European institutions subject to the so-called Basel 3 regulations will escape the wave that has already hit Crédit Suisse, which was taken over by UBS in a few hours? However, the interpenetration between all the banks alone justifies the current mistrust of the markets. 

In this context, it is not sure that the ECB rate hike was the best option. 

The fall in oil prices in recent weeks prolongs the hope of avoiding recession in many countries, but inflation is still very present and weighs on the purchasing power of households. It should be remembered that according to a study by the FED, 40% of Americans could not meet an unexpected expense of $400 without borrowing. Given this, how can we be surprised by the decline in textile consumption? 

Last week was once again marked by a downturn in the cotton market, which broke the symbolic USC 80/Lb barrier on all maturities. The decline is mainly due to bad macroeconomic news. The chances of a quick return of demand are low. Everyone agrees on a consumption of 110 million bales per year, but its breakdown over time may be problematic for price stability. 

Today, all eyes are on the producers. What will they do? Will they plant cotton or another food crop? Brazil and Australia seem resolutely optimistic and will plant cotton, while the USA is more on the fence. It must be said that production costs have soared and will weigh on profitability, especially if El Niño and drought strike before the harvest. 

Indian production is now forecast at just over 31 million bales, which is disappointing. But at the same time, the financial capacities of neighboring countries are not improving, especially in Pakistan, which is still waiting for an IMF loan in the coming days. 

The situation of the world and of cotton remains worrying.