Despite three weeks without publication, it is difficult to find a situation that has become clearer: 

- The war is in full swing in Ukraine with a situation, at the top of the Russian state, which raises questions. We do not know the number of victims of this war but we learn that President Zelensky is now wearing glasses, probably to better see the destruction of his country. It is time for reason to prevail to stop this carnage. 

- The world is holding its breath waiting for the result of the Turkish elections, without any country officially taking a position, as President Erdogan's policy has been ambivalent during his 20 years in office. 

- Despite the disenchantment with him, J. Powell continues to raise interest rates, closely followed by the ECB. - Bankruptcies and other bank takeovers are multiplying in an attempt to stem the spread, particularly in the United States. 

- Inflation has taken hold at an annual rate of 5%, jeopardizing all the most fragile economies. The list could go on and on, but the worst thing is that our market is in the same boat: 

- The ICE remains stuck around 80 USC/ Lb which now seems to have become a pivotal price. However, if we look at the A Cotlook Index, it has lost ground once again, which empirically demonstrates the decline of the basis (difference between the selling price and the value of the New York futures market). It can be estimated today that the average decline of the latter is about 20% during this campaign. The pressure of new crops in the southern hemisphere on the market is undeniable, led by Brazil and Australia. The equation will quickly come down to how to buy at high prices and resell at lower prices. Unbearable! 

- The May WASDE brought neither answers nor perspectives; it must be said that the article by a former ICAC official had the effect of a cold shower, announcing that the Indian crop would be one million tons smaller than announced by the USDA. It is difficult to know what is behind this statement: a drop in production or the retention of farmers while waiting for a new minimum price guarantee on the eve of the elections. But holding back so much cotton seems hardly conceivable. In any case, this report will not go down in history as it is so questionable. 

- Much more worrying is the situation of spinners who have consumed little cotton this season, with Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and China in the lead. These countries have invested massively in the textile industry and will have to pay back their investments with reduced turnover and margins. The aphorism of a soon-to-be-retired trader may work in the industry "I lose on each kilo but I make up for it on volume 😊 " 

Salvation may come from Africa where production is announced to be up for the next harvest against the backdrop of a revitalized African Cotton Association. After the COVID years, it was necessary to wake up a sleeping Association, while the prospects of development of the sector are promising. Rebuilt on these baptismal funds, the Association has adopted new statutes and renewed its management team to lead a policy based on Traceability, Quality, support to the rural world and more generally to the protection of the African cotton world. The prospects offered by decarbonation could allow the birth of an industrial Africa. 

The real referees are named this season El Nino, which depending on its violence could reduce the crops, as well as Consumption, which has collapsed, giving way to cheaper synthetics.