The that what happens in Las Vegas should stay there will not apply this week when the annual meeting of the International Cotton Association takes place. Despite participation well below previous editions, taking the pulse of the market is still an important exercise in the light of the new cotton campaign. 

The first remarkable fact was the result of the midterm elections in the United States which, instead of the expected Republican tidal wave, established the balance with President Biden's Democratic Party. 

In the aftermath the Russian command announced to withdraw from Kherson without a fight. This can be a first step towards a ceasefire that would open the door to peace negotiations. We are not there yet but we can hope it could happen. 

The third point is that against a background of non-existent demand, the world of cotton has become gloomy. Many players are bearish, especially after the Australian, Brazilian and Indian representatives announced record harvests at the same time as very good quality. On the whole, the spinners have reduced their production capacities, have large stocks of spun products and/or cotton that cannot find buyers. China raised hopes last week by hinting at a relaxation of its “zero COVID” policy. 

To reassure themselves, all participants were enthusiastic about the progress made in terms of sustainable development and traceability to the finished product. The President of Abrapa made an impression with his jeans carrying a QR code allowing to know the origin of the components used for its design. 

However, the brilliant demonstration by market analysts got the better of many hopes. The end of the December 2022 deadline should drive the market to its lowest levels until the arrival of the new harvest in 2023. 

It is true that the WASDE published yesterday did not generate euphoria with a further increase in production and a clear overestimation of consumption. 

We are not there yet and it will be necessary to resume the analysis of the data at a later stage.