All financial markets are disturbed by the combination of poor economic indicators and the war in Ukraine which is entering its ninth month. However, there are some signs that a solution to the conflict is not so far off. The intensification of the fighting and its violence suggest a race against time on both sides. The installation of the "Wagner line" to freeze the Russian conquests and on the other hand the resumption of Kherson as soon as possible, give an image of haste to crystallize the positions before bitter negotiations on a field of ruins. 

On the financial market front, prices are rising again for both equities and commodities as the curse was announced. Apart from the indicators, one should not forget the resilience of all markets. After the psychological impact of the Euro/Dollar parity, this level is assimilated and taken into account. 

The ECB had to react once again to the latest FED rate hike by massively raising its key rates. The question now is how far this hike will take all the Western economies. 

The big surprise, since the beginning of the war, is that Russia's economic state is inversely proportional to its military state. A relative weakness of the army is compensated by the unsuspected state of its economy, which is more than resisting. 

The cotton market is also surprising, as it is yo-yoing, which can destabilize even the most resistant organizations. The vertiginous fall in prices can now be explained by a very reduced demand and by the total or partial closure of many industrial units. 

Tensions on Ukrainian grain exports leave little room for a drop-in wheat or corn prices in the coming months, thus reducing the prospects of a choice in favour of cotton at planting time. 

Will the poor economic outlook, inflation and recession push cotton prices to their lowest levels? (For the record, COVID had pushed prices below 50 USC/Lb.) This is possible but unlikely. However, it is also possible that prices will return to last season's levels, i.e., close to 150 USC/Lb. 

So maybe we will find a middle way, in any case this is what many spinners seem to think who have taken advantage of the low prices to fix the prices of contracts indexed on the New York futures market. Manufacturers are worried about a rebound that would take into account the state of low US production, the main compass of the ICE. 

In such a context, it is difficult to envisage a direction for the market, with the Cassandras envisaging a return to 50 USC while the Pythias want to see in every movement of the market a sign of hope taking them to the Olympus of prices. 

At this point the ICA meeting next week in Las Vegas should be instructive. It will be interesting to exchange with all those who will have obtained their visa for the United States...