On the eve of the meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump, a sense of caution hangs over all markets.

The issuance of an additional quota for cotton imports into China is expected, even hoped for. The market desperately needs it, and speculators are waiting for this windfall to bolster the market’s recovery. Indeed, after months of scarcity, the cotton market is finally trending upward for both this season and the next, as we have already mentioned, thanks to fundamentals such as: 

• - Cotton consumption in India, which will remain strong; 
• - Fertilizer shortages, leading to a drop in yields; 
• - Weather conditions, which, even though they are improving in the United States, remain a concern because the prospect of a major El Niño is on everyone’s mind, along with its impact on production; 
• - Soaring prices for synthetic fibers following the damage caused during the conflict with Iran to all petrochemical complexes in the region. 

So is an uninterrupted rise inevitable, as speculated by the massive influx of investors into the New York financial market? Perhaps, but the signing of a peace agreement in the Gulf, coupled with a drop in textile consumption, could limit the rise in the long term. 

It was against this backdrop—part euphoric, part anxious—that the 22nd meeting of the African Cotton Association was held in Lomé. The price levels achieved and the warm reception from Togolese authorities and cotton industry bodies have restored courage to many pessimists. Smiles have returned to the faces of African cotton producers who, as the season draws to a close, are trying to balance their books without heeding the doomsayers predicting a market downturn and a decline of the dollar against the euro. 

Doubts remain regarding the sustainability of the price levels achieved, but it would be a shame not to savor the moment while hoping for a lasting upturn for the new harvest in a calmer environment. 

Lomé 2026 was a great success; let us hope that Douala 2027 will also be a vintage year amid Cameroon’s booming cotton production.