One question keeps niggling at the mind of anyone trying to understand Mr Trump’s behaviour during this term of office: does the President, who has survived several assassination attempts, believe himself to be immortal? Indeed, the United States’ behavior under his presidency tends to suggest that American pre-eminence is eternal. All international institutions have been gradually stripped of their substance in favor of an America that decides everything, all on its own and for the long term. 

The decision, against all expectations, to provide Saudi Arabia (Iran’s long-standing enemy) with uranium enrichment capabilities on Saudi soil under the sole control of the US, is yet another example of this logic. Regardless of the balance of power, waging war against one party whilst refusing to grant the other what one gives amounts to ‘divide and rule’ – but for how long? 

The conflict in Iran has flared up again, once more dragging the entire Middle East into its wake, including Yemen, which is carrying out attacks on Saudi tankers to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. If this blockade proves successful, Saudi Arabia will have no choice but to become directly involved in the regional war or to see its oil exports blocked. 

This situation has a direct impact on insurance premiums and freight rates. These fundamental factors in price formation will continue to weigh on all commodities, particularly oil and fertilizers. 

The resurgence of the war and the threats to the straits through which oil passes have sent oil prices soaring once again and are posing serious inflationary risks to the economy. Against this backdrop, the room for manoeuvre available to the ECB and, above all, the Fed is minimal. Key interest rates are set to rise. The US dollar continues to appreciate against all currencies, including the euro. 

As for white gold, a degree of stability is undeniable for the time being, hovering around 80 USC/lb for the December 2026 contract on the ICE in New York. However, in the physical market, we are seeing a erosion of the fundamentals. 

Many have turned their attention to China, which is importing large quantities of cotton as the season draws to a close, whilst at the same time India is adopting a more wait-and-see approach, despite the suspension of import duties, which has failed to provide the hoped-for stimulus. 

Bangladesh and Vietnam, major importing countries, are also cautious. This is no doubt due to fears of a slowdown in the textile sector against the current economic backdrop, marked by wars and instability. 

Our fears, expressed time and again, of rising production costs due to the pressure of climatic uncertainties (El Niño foremost among them), fuel prices (Russia has just restricted its diesel exports to address a domestic shortage caused by targeted Ukrainian attacks) and input costs are being confirmed day after day. It is hard to imagine cotton prices falling under such conditions. 

On the eve of this column’s summer break, I would like to share a quote from A. Schopenhauer: ‘To desire immortality is to desire the eternal perpetuation of a great fault.’ It will take us more than one summer to grasp its deeper meaning, but I wish you all a wonderful holiday.