Pakistan, the world’s third-largest cotton user, may import as much 50 percent more of the fiber this year as the nation’s worst-ever floods destroy crops and textile demand increases, an industry official said.
Imports may reach 3 million bales, compared with about 2 million last year, according to Muhammad Arshad, a vice president at the Pakistan Central Cotton committee, a government-supported organization. Output may drop to 12.5 million bales, below last year’s total of 12.7 million bales and a pre-flood forecast of 14.1 million, he said.
“Excess rains and insects have destroyed some crops,” Arshad said today in an interview at an industry conference in Lubbock, Texas. “Pakistan will import from India, U.S., Brazil and maybe from a few African countries. Also, demand in Pakistan is on the rise.”
Flooding since July 22 caused $7 billion of damage, according to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. Reduced output from Pakistan, the fourth-largest producer, and China, the top grower and importer, has helped fuel a 36 percent jump in New York cotton prices during the past two months, reaching a 15- year high of $1.0237 a pound today.
Consumption in Pakistan may rise about 3 percent to 15.5 million bales, Arshad said. A bale weighs 170 kilograms (375 pounds) in the Asian nation.
Global cotton inventories will fall to 45.4 million bales in the year to July 31, the lowest level in 14 years, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. Bales measured by the USDA weight 218 kilograms.
Cotton is planted in Pakistan between April and June, and harvested between October and December. Pakistan produced a record 14.4 million bales in 2005.
The U.S. is the biggest exporter, according to the USDA.