Across the week ending Friday, September 26, ICE cotton futures followed a very narrow sideways pattern with one big hump in the middle (see chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). The daily settlements showed alternating daily gains and losses.  Dec’25 cotton settled Friday at 66.40 cents per pound, while the more distant Dec’26 settlement was 69.28.  Chinese cotton prices mostly declined across the week.  The A-Index of world cotton price pattern was more mixed.

Other futures markets followed various pathways this week.  CBOT corn and KC wheat both weakened early, then stepped up and plateaued before weakening on Friday.  CBOT soybeans slid early and then traded sideways. ICE WTI crude oil futures started sideways then gradually ascended higher. The U.S. dollar index started flat-to-lower before taking several stair-steps higher.  Other macro influences (i.e., GDP, inflation, and interest rate policy) remained mixed in their expectation and implication for slow economic growth.

Cotton-focused market influences for the week ending September 26 included continued weekly reports of very light to moderate regional demand for U.S. cotton, the latter associated with more actively traded new crop supplies from South Texas.  The week ending September 18 saw mediocre net sales of U.S. cotton of only 94,600 bales of all cotton.  Other export indicators like weekly export shipments and total commitments also reflect modest export demand.

Recent agronomic influences included a cool front bringing scattered rainfall over parts of Texas, Kansas, and the Delta States. The likely onset of La Niña conditions could contribute to a drier fall.  This could be neutral/beneficial to the maturing 2025 crop, at the cost of early dryness in early 2026.  On the other side of the world, the precocious Indian monsoon is stronger/later than normal in what should be the withdrawal phase. It remains to be seen whether recent floods in India and especially Pakistan are a net benefit or detriment to summer-sown crops like cotton.

Through Thursday, September 25, the shifts in ICE cotton open interest steadily rose compared to the previous day. Successive price settlements were mixed.  The regular Tuesday (September 23) snapshot of speculative open interest reflected short positioning with 1,723 additional hedge fund shorts, week over week, reinforced by 1,582 fewer (liquidated) hedge fund longs and a 2,808 position contraction of the index trader net long position.

The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may also represent a wet blanket on the market.  It remains true that unfixed call sales (by mills) are at an historically low level, perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side. In terms of ratios, unfixed call purchases (by suppliers) outweigh unfixed call sales by over two-fold across all contracts, as of September 19.  For the Dec’25 contract alone, there were over three unfixed call purchases for every unfixed call sale.

For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.