Through Friday, November 21, ICE cotton futures started the week sideways before gradually sliding to new contract lows  (see chart above courtesy of Barchart.com). Friday’s trading showed a partial bounce the Mar’26 settling up 11 points at 63.85 cents per pound. Chinese cotton prices were mixed this week, as was the A-Index of world cotton prices.

Other ag futures markets, along with ICE WTI crude oil futures, all showed similar patterns this week as ICE cotton, i.e., support in the first half of the week and weakening thereafter.  In contrast with these physical commodities, the U.S. Dollar Index started flat-to-higher, then shifted higher to finish the week flat-to-higher.  Other macro influences (i.e., GDP, inflation, and interest rate policy) remained mixed in their expectation and implication for slow economic growth.

Cotton-focused market influences were hard to document in the absence of updated weekly data from USDA NASS and USDA FAS following the federal shutdown. USDA and CFTC are playing catch-up, but it will be weeks until we receive on-time data.  USDA AMS this week reports higher spot prices week over week with cotton demand varying from very light to moderate.  As of November 6, AMS also reported 33% of forecasted U.S. production being classed.

The onset of La Niña conditions is contributing to a drier fall.  This could be neutral/beneficial to the maturing 2025 crop, at the cost of dryness in early 2026.  On the other side of the world, the precocious Indian monsoon was stronger and longer. than normal. It remains to be seen whether summer floods in India and especially Pakistan were a net benefit or detriment to summer-sown crops like cotton.

Through Thursday, November 20, the session by session decreases in cotton open interest combined with mostly declining price settlements, gave the appearance of long liquidation. Unfortunately, this cannot be confirmed since the federal shutdown prevented a current update of CFTC Commitment of Traders data.

The dynamics of ICE cotton futures may also represent a wet blanket on the market.  It remains true that unfixed call sales (by mills) are at an historically low level, perhaps reflecting the cautionary buying on the demand side.

For more details and data on Old Crop and New Crop fundamentals, plus other near term influences, follow these links (or the drop-down menus above) to those sub-pages.