COTTON RELATED EXTRACTS FROM WASDE - February 9,2010

COTTON RELATED EXTRACTS FROM WASDE - February 9,2010

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COTTON:  The 2009/10 U.S. cotton supply and demand

estimates show sharply higher exports, lower ending stocks,

and higher prices relative to last month.  Production and

domestic mill use are unchanged.  The export forecast is

raised 1.0 million bales to 12.0 million, as new export sales of

more than 1.8 million bales were made in January.  Led by a

drop in the New York futures market, recent lower prices for

U.S. cotton combined with strong foreign mill demand have

boosted export prospects.  Accordingly, U.S. ending stocks

are now forecast at 3.3 million bales, 21.4 percent of total

use.  If realized, this would be the lowest stocks-to-use ratio

since 2003/04.  The forecast range of 59 to 65 cents per

pound for the marketing-year average price received by

producers is raised 2 cents on the lower end and 1 cent on

the upper end, based on a higher-than-expected average

price received for the month of December.

This month’s world cotton 2009/10 forecasts show higher

beginning stocks, largely offset by higher consumption. 

Beginning stocks are raised in China due to modest

reductions in estimated consumption for marketing years

2007/08 and 2008/09.  World production is virtually

unchanged.  Higher forecast 2009/10 world consumption

includes increases for China and India, based on a stronger

estimated recovery in demand than previously anticipated. 

Total world trade is about unchanged, as higher U.S. exports

are mainly offset by a reduction in exports by India.  World

ending stocks are raised marginally from last month.

                    World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/

                                Million 480-lb. bales

===============================================================================

                     :           :   Total   :          :  Total   :  Ending

    Commodity        :   Output  :   Supply  : Trade 2/ :   Use    :  Stocks

===============================================================================

                     :

                     :                         World

     2007/08         :    119.91     183.04      38.47      122.97     62.66

     2008/09 (Est.)  :    107.45     170.11      30.23      110.11     62.42

     2009/10 (Proj.) :

          January    :    102.71     163.64      33.66      114.36     51.72

         February    :    102.74     165.16      33.77      115.53     52.08

                     :                     United States

     2007/08         :     19.21      28.70      13.65        4.59     10.04

     2008/09 (Est.)  :     12.82      22.86      13.28        3.59      6.34

     2009/10 (Proj.) :

          January    :     12.40      18.74      11.00        3.40      4.30

         February    :     12.40      18.74      12.00        3.40      3.30

                     :                        Foreign 3/

     2007/08         :    100.70     154.34      24.82      118.38     52.61

     2008/09 (Est.)  :     94.64     147.25      16.95      106.52     56.08

     2009/10 (Proj.) :

          January    :     90.31     144.90      22.66      110.96     47.42

         February    :     90.34     146.42      21.77      112.13     48.78

===============================================================================

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1.  2/ Based on export estimate.  3/  Total

Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for

treatment of export/import imbalances.

                                WASDE-479-17                    February 2010

                         U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/

===============================================================================

                          :         :         :      2009/10  Projections

       Item               : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :===============================

                          :         :   Est.  :     January        February

===============================================================================

                          :               Million acres

Area                       :                           

 Planted                  :  10.83       9.47          9.15            9.15

 Harvested                :  10.49       7.57          7.69            7.69

                          :

                          :                   Pounds

Yield per harvested        :

   acre                   :    879        813           774             774

                          :

                          :             Million 480 pound bales

                          :

Beginning stocks 2/        :   9.48      10.04          6.34            6.34

Production                 :  19.21      12.82         12.40           12.40

Imports                    :   0.01       0.00          0.01            0.01

 Supply, total            :  28.70      22.86         18.74           18.74

Domestic use               :   4.59       3.59          3.40            3.40

Exports                    :  13.65      13.28         11.00           12.00

 Use, total               :  18.24      16.86         14.40           15.40

Unaccounted 3/             :   0.41      -0.34          0.04            0.04

Ending stocks              :  10.04       6.34          4.30            3.30

                          :

Avg. farm price 4/         :   59.3       47.8     57.0-64.0       59.0-65.0

===============================================================================

Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.

1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.  Totals may

not add due to rounding.  2/ Based on Bureau of Census data.  3/ Reflects the

difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending

stocks based on Bureau of Census data.  4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.

===============================================================================

                                WASDE-479-26                    February 2010

                        World Cotton Supply and Use 1/

                            (Million 480-pound bales)

================================================================================

                     :          Supply         :       Use      :      :

       Region        :=========================:================: Loss : Ending

                     :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports:  2/  : stocks

                     :  stocks : tion  :       :        :       :      :

================================================================================

                     :

                     :                      2007/08

                     :

World                 :   63.13  119.91    38.99  122.97    38.47  -2.06  62.66

United States         :    9.48   19.21     0.01    4.59    13.65   0.41  10.04

Total foreign         :   53.66  100.70    38.98  118.38    24.82  -2.47  52.61

 Major exporters 4/  :   19.90   46.47     1.56   28.18    21.11  -0.16  18.81

  Central Asia 5/    :    2.14    8.20     0.04    1.61     6.35   0.00   2.42

  Afr. Fr. Zone 6/   :    1.06    2.46       3/    0.19     2.66   0.00   0.67

  S. Hemis. 7/       :    7.96    9.72     0.53    6.00     4.09  -0.18   8.30

   Australia         :    1.18    0.64       3/    0.05     1.22  -0.05   0.60

  Brazil             :    5.41    7.36     0.16    4.60     2.23  -0.15   6.25

  India              :    7.66   24.00     0.60   18.60     7.03   0.00   6.63

 Major importers 8/  :   31.73   51.46    34.81   85.75     2.66  -2.31  31.91

  Mexico             :    1.03    0.62     1.53    2.00     0.22   0.03   0.93

  China              :   20.54   37.00    11.53   51.00     0.06  -2.50  20.50

  EU-27 9/           :    0.83    1.74     1.59    1.81     1.62   0.05   0.67

  Turkey             :    1.95    3.10     3.27    6.00     0.37   0.00   1.95

  Pakistan           :    4.88    8.90     3.91   12.00     0.27   0.03   5.39

  Indonesia          :    0.35    0.03     2.30    2.23     0.02   0.05   0.39

  Thailand           :    0.35    0.02     1.93    1.95     0.00   0.03   0.32

  Bangladesh         :    0.59    0.04     3.50    3.50     0.00   0.01   0.62

  Vietnam            :    0.22    0.03     1.21    1.20     0.00   0.00   0.25

                     :

                     :                 2008/09 (Estimated)

                     :

World                 :   62.66  107.45    30.06  110.11    30.23  -2.59  62.42

United States         :   10.04   12.82       3/    3.59    13.28  -0.34   6.34

Total foreign         :   52.61   94.64    30.06  106.52    16.95  -2.25  56.08

 Major exporters 4/  :   18.81   42.42     1.54   26.90    13.98  -0.19  22.08

  Central Asia 5/    :    2.42    7.12     0.01    1.60     4.45   0.00   3.49

  Afr. Fr. Zone 6/   :    0.67    2.41       3/    0.19     2.20   0.00   0.70

  S. Hemis. 7/       :    8.30    8.68     0.31    5.52     4.60  -0.20   7.38

   Australia         :    0.60    1.50       3/    0.05     1.20  -0.07   0.93

  Brazil             :    6.25    5.48     0.05    4.20     2.74  -0.15   4.99

  India              :    6.63   22.60     0.80   17.90     2.36   0.00   9.77

 Major importers 8/  :   31.91   49.54    26.05   75.39     1.93  -2.06  32.24

  Mexico             :    0.93    0.58     1.32    1.85     0.18   0.03   0.77

  China              :   20.50   36.70     7.00   44.00     0.08  -2.25  22.37

  EU-27 9/           :    0.67    1.24     0.96    1.14     1.01   0.05   0.66

  Turkey             :    1.95    1.93     2.89    5.00     0.14   0.00   1.63

  Pakistan           :    5.39    9.00     2.00   11.50     0.43   0.03   4.44

  Indonesia          :    0.39    0.03     2.00    2.00     0.02   0.05   0.35

  Thailand           :    0.32    0.02     1.60    1.60     0.00   0.03   0.30

  Bangladesh         :    0.62    0.04     3.80    3.75     0.00   0.01   0.70

  Vietnam            :    0.25    0.01     1.23    1.25     0.00   0.00   0.24

================================================================================

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1.   Totals may not add exactly and trade

may not balance due to rounding and other factors.   2/ Generally reflects

cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil,

China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks

based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks.  3/ Less than

5,000 bales.  4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and

regions listed.  5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,

Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central

African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.  7/

Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.

8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan,

Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

                                WASDE-479-27                    February 2010

                        World Cotton Supply and Use 1/

                            (Million 480-pound bales)

================================================================================

                     :          Supply         :       Use      :      :

       Region        :=========================:================: Loss : Ending

                     :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports:  2/  : stocks

                     :  stocks : tion  :       :        :       :      :

================================================================================

                     :

                     :                 2009/10 (Projected)

World                 :

        January      :   60.93  102.71    33.65  114.36    33.66  -2.46  51.72

       February      :   62.42  102.74    33.76  115.53    33.77  -2.46  52.08

United States         :

        January      :    6.34   12.40     0.01    3.40    11.00   0.04   4.30

       February      :    6.34   12.40     0.01    3.40    12.00   0.04   3.30

Total foreign         :

        January      :   54.59   90.31    33.64  110.96    22.66  -2.50  47.42

       February      :   56.08   90.34    33.76  112.13    21.77  -2.50  48.78

 Major exporters 4/  :

        January      :   22.08   42.76     1.36   27.76    19.64  -0.19  18.99

       February      :   22.08   42.81     1.36   28.21    18.74  -0.19  19.49

  Central Asia 5/Jan :    3.49    6.37     0.01    1.59     6.02   0.00   2.26

                 Feb :    3.49    6.37     0.01    1.59     6.02   0.00   2.26

  Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jan :    0.70    2.38       3/    0.19     2.26   0.00   0.64

                 Feb :    0.70    2.38       3/    0.19     2.26   0.00   0.64

  S. Hemis 7/    Jan :    7.38    9.09     0.35    5.51     4.49  -0.20   7.02

                 Feb :    7.38    9.14     0.35    5.51     4.49  -0.20   7.07

   Australia     Jan :    0.93    1.75       3/    0.04     1.70  -0.07   1.01

                 Feb :    0.93    1.75       3/    0.04     1.70  -0.07   1.01

  Brazil         Jan :    4.99    5.55     0.10    4.20     2.00  -0.15   4.59

                 Feb :    4.99    5.55     0.10    4.20     2.00  -0.15   4.59

  India          Jan :    9.77   23.50     0.60   18.75     6.60   0.00   8.52

                 Feb :    9.77   23.50     0.60   19.20     5.70   0.00   8.97

 Major importers 8/  :

        January      :   30.74   45.02    29.68   78.95     2.00  -2.31  26.80

       February      :   32.24   45.02    29.77   79.70     2.00  -2.31  27.64

  Mexico         Jan :    0.77    0.42     1.50    1.90     0.10   0.03   0.66

                 Feb :    0.77    0.42     1.50    1.90     0.10   0.03   0.66

  China          Jan :   20.87   32.00     9.00   46.75     0.08  -2.50  17.54

                 Feb :   22.37   32.00     9.00   47.50     0.08  -2.50  18.29

  EU-27 9/       Jan :    0.66    1.01     0.93    1.00     1.06   0.05   0.48

                 Feb :    0.66    1.01     0.92    1.00     1.07   0.05   0.47

  Turkey         Jan :    1.63    1.70     3.30    5.10     0.13   0.00   1.41

                 Feb :    1.63    1.70     3.30    5.10     0.13   0.00   1.41

  Pakistan       Jan :    4.44    9.80     2.65   12.00     0.50   0.03   4.36

                 Feb :    4.44    9.80     2.75   12.00     0.50   0.03   4.46

  Indonesia      Jan :    0.35    0.03     2.08    2.05     0.02   0.05   0.33

                 Feb :    0.35    0.03     2.08    2.05     0.02   0.05   0.33

  Thailand       Jan :    0.30    0.01     1.80    1.78     0.00   0.03   0.31

                 Feb :    0.30    0.01     1.80    1.78     0.00   0.03   0.31

  Bangladesh     Jan :    0.70    0.04     4.00    4.00     0.00   0.01   0.73

                 Feb :    0.70    0.04     4.00    4.00     0.00   0.01   0.73

  Vietnam        Jan :    0.24    0.01     1.35    1.35     0.00   0.00   0.25

                 Feb :    0.24    0.01     1.35    1.35     0.00   0.00   0.25

================================================================================

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1.   Totals may not add exactly and trade

may not balance due to rounding and other factors.   2/ Generally reflects

cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and

the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on

supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 

4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 

5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and

Uzbekistan.  6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad,

Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.   7/ Argentina, Australia,

Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.  8/ In addition to the

countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea,

and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

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