U.S. export commitments for 2017-18 still 108% of the USDA estimate and are up 12% from a year ago. New-crop commitments are up 29% from forward bookings last year. Survey showed an average U.S. all-cotton planted acreage estimate of 13.781 million acres ahead of the USDA report.
Cotton futures settled on sharp losses Thursday as traders digested a second round of U.S. export sales cancellations and tweaked positions ahead of USDA’s planted acreage report.
December lost 132 points to settle at 83.55 cents, its lowest close since June 14 and just off the low of its 148-point range from up nine points at 84.96 to down 139 points at 83.48 cents. It posted the session high on the opening Wednesday night.
Maturing July had the smallest loss, settling off 82 points at 84.93 cents, and the other contracts closed down 89 to 139 points.
Volume increased to 17,311 lots from 10,413 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 2,351 lots or 23%. Options volume rose to 5,191 lots (2,102 calls and 3,089 puts) from 2,591 lots (1,699 calls and 892 puts).
U.S. all-cotton export commitments for 2017-18 dipped a net 16,600 running bales to 16.805 million RB during the week ended June 21, still 108% of USDA’s forecast. The reporting week saw net upland cancellations of 18,900 RB and net Pima sales of 2,300 RB. This followed net cancellations the prior week of 112,600 RB.
Commitments — outstanding sales of 3.152 million RB plus shipments — were up 12% from cumulative sales a year ago. Total sales last year were 104% of final 2016-17 exports.
All-cotton shipments of 380,500 RB, up from 320,200 RB the prior week, remained above the pace needed to make the forecast. Shipments for the season rose to 13.653 million RB, up 6% from exports a year ago and 88% of the USDA projection. Year-ago exports were 89% of the final total.
Shipments averaging roughly 327,500 RB a week now are needed to make the estimate, which is 7% above year-ago exports and would be the second highest on record. Exports are projected at 83% of the total 2017-18 market offtake of U.S. cotton.
All-cotton sales for shipment next season of 252,600 RB, down from 341,400 RB the previous week, lifted 2018-19 commitments to 5.514 million RB, up 29% from forward bookings a year ago and 37% of the USDA forecast. Forward sales a year ago were 27% of the current 2017-18 projection.
Traders looked ahead to the U.S. planted acreage report, scheduled for release by USDA at 11 a.m. CDT on Friday. These reports have produced some market-moving surprises over the years.
A Bloomberg survey of traders and cotton analysts showed an average estimate of 13.781 million acres, up from the March intentions of 13.469 million and 12.61 million acres planted last year. Estimates ranged from 13.45 million to 14.127 million acres.
Certified stocks declined 49 bales to 91,960 on Wednesday, the daily ICE report showed. Open interest dropped 830 lots to 256,407, with July’s down 500 lots to 286 and December’s down 123 lots to 181,213.Source: Agfax