The cotton market did an about face Friday, recouping it losses of Thursday. Thursday the market nosedived on unofficial comments the U.S./China trade talks will likely drag on into the month of April. As we indicated in earlier commentary, for weeks on end, the market was told late March 30, give or take, would be the time for a signing ceremony. Thus, in simple terms, its financial heart was broken Thursday. However, on Friday, the feeling was an April agreement was better than no agreement at all.
The technicals seem to be changing colors from bearish to bullish. Certainly, chart indicators, such as the moving averages, RSIs and the like are more or less hooking bullish. To that end, the market is threatening to hurdle its January high and that would be a very positive chart accomplishment.
For the week, spot May cotton was 2.25 cents higher this week over its close of last Friday. Given the congestion and choppiness of the trade, that too was equally a positive accomplishment. Into next week, USDA will issue another round sales exports. Currently the market stands at 88% percent of USDA’s preordained target for the 2018-19 season. So, if China were to emerge as a major late season buyer, then trading could really become active. However, a strong dollar could prove to be a detriment to any serious rally.
Friday May cotton settled at 75.50 cents, up 1.20 cents, July was at 76.60 cents, up 1.15 cents and December finished at 74.52 cents, up 0.46 cent. Friday’s estimated volume was 25,000 contracts traded.