COTTON production in Australia may exceed 4 million bales this season for the first time as rainfall and high prices boost planting, according to a producers' group.
Planted area may exceed 500,000 hectares, David Bone, communications manager at Cotton Australia, said yesterday. That compares with a forecast last month for output of as much as 3.8 million bales from 470,000 hectares. A bale weighs 227 kilograms.
Cotton futures in New York reached a record last month and have risen 56 per cent this year because global demand, led by China, could outstrip supply.
Advertisement: Story continues below A La Nina weather pattern has produced record rains in eastern Australia, boosting dam levels and increasing planting of non-irrigated crops. Australia is the world's fourth largest exporter.
''We have had good prices before and we have had good seasonal conditions before, but it's rare that we get them at the same time; that is what is really driving it along,'' Mr Bone said. Area and production estimates would be reviewed in the middle of this month after the planting window closes.
Cotton for March delivery rose 0.6 per cent to $US1.18 a pound on ICE Futures yesterday. Futures jumped to a record $US1.5195 early last month, the highest price since trading began 140 years ago.
Mr Bone said there was a risk that heavy rainfall in Queensland's cotton-growing regions could cause flooding this month, curbing the outlook for production. Output was about 1.7 million bales last season, according to industry figures.
Water storages in the Murray-Darling basin, where more than 90 per cent of cotton is grown, are 75 per cent full, according to the basin management authority's website. The La Nina pattern, characterised by cooling tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, is forecast to persist into next year, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
Global cotton output will rise 16 per cent in the year to July 31 to 25.3 million tonnes as high prices boost planting, the International Cotton Advisory Committee in Washington said in a report last month.
