In its February estimates, CONAB raised Brazilian cotton production estimate by 151,208 tons to 2,564,900 tons (11.784 million bales). The February report also revealed what may lie ahead for acreage outside of Mato Grosso, as growers in almost every region expanded cotton acreage by sizeable levels.

The success of Mato Grosso growers, with cotton as a second crop behind soybeans, is drawing the attention of growers across the frontier states and the rest of the Midwest. The lack of infrastructure both in gins and in transport to the port has limited cotton acreage in the Frontier states. In 2018/2019, some growers in these regions have begun to establish a cotton base.

In Roraima, the northernmost and least populated state, 1200 hectares were planted in November to irrigated acreage, and 6,000 hectares as a second crop, which reflected a 25% increase. This state has large tracts of virgin land with large potential for cotton and soybeans. The main issue for now is logistics in moving the product. Rondonia state, which borders Amazonas, planted 4500 hectares. Piaui doubled cotton acreage, reactivated a gin, and planted 15,600 hectares. Maranhao increased acreage over 23%, to 27,600 hectares.

Acreage also expanded in the established farming statesof Mato Grosso doSul, Goias, Minas Gerais, and  even in Sao Paulo. Minas Gerais expanded acreage 57.6%, to 39,400 hectares. 60% was a full season crop, and 40% as a second crop. The expansion of acreage outside the key sates of Bahia and Mato Grosso will also increase the availability of the crop to cover a wider shipment period. CONAB forecast that Bahia would plant 332,000 hectares, a 25.9% increase. 292,000 hectares is rain grown, CONAB forecast consumption at only 730,000 tons and exports at a record 1,450,000 tons, leaving a record ending stocks of 1,081,000 tons. The cotton areas of Goias, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, and Bahia received very beneficial rains during the February 9-11 time period. For some parts of Western Bahia, it was the first major rains in 30-40 days. Planting of the second crop in Mato Grosso is accelerating and is past the 60% point. New attention is now centered on a new Land Investment Bill that is being considered, which would lift restrictions on the sales of land to foreign groups, except in the Amazon region. The Agribusiness lobby is pushing the bill, but the President is fearful that it will lead to a rush of Chinese land purchases.

Brazilian exporters remain very aggressive in export offers, especially the lower quality color grade 1 1/8 styles that must compete with US styles. Last week, Brazilian sold in volume across a broad cross section of destinations. In Turkey, SLM 1 1/8 and lower color grades sold at 550 on the cover month, which reflects a very aggressive basis given the freight cost from Brazil to the Turkish ports. Brazilian exporters are under pressure to move all stocks before the record new crop begins to move