Brazil cotton exports are forecast up 1.5 million bales year over year to 14.5 million in marketing year 2025/26 (August 2025 – July 2026), reaching a record level for the third consecutive year. The recent export growth has been driven by rapid growth in production as both area harvested and yields have increased.1 However, exports have not grown as much as production, and domestic consumption has remained constant. Consequently, ending stocks have grown in each of the past 2 years and are forecast at a record 4.3 million bales in 2025/26. Brazilian cotton prices fell over the past 3 years due to increased domestic supplies and in line with global prices.

Brazil’s exports were up 6 percent in the first half of 2025/26 with notable increases for China, Bangladesh, Turkey, and India. Vietnam was the top destination in 2024/25, but shipments have fallen sharply this year as the country has increased imports of U.S. cotton at the expense of other origins. China has retaken the top spot as year-to-date shipments have already exceeded the volumes shipped in all of 2024/25. However, exports to China are only about half the volume shipped at this point in 2023/24 when China was replenishing state reserves. 

In December 2025, Brazil exported a record monthly volume of cotton which demonstrated the industry’s ability to keep pace with the rapid growth in production. The industry also made progress in diversifying ports after congestion at Santos negatively impacted previous export seasons. In the first half of 2025/26, nearly 10 percent of Brazilian cotton was shipped from a port other than Santos compared to the 5-year average of only 4 percent. 

Looking forward, Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts the 2026/27 crop below the 2025/26 crop as both yield and area harvested are expected to fall due to high input costs and low cotton prices. However, elevated stocks may limit the impact on exports.