The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has further lowered the country’s cotton crop estimate for crop year 2018-19 to 315 lakh bales of 170 kg each. This is a reduction of six lakh bales from the association’s previous estimate of 321 lakh bales released last month, due to lower output in Maharashtra, North Zone, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

CAI’s April estimate lowers cotton crop estimate for 2018-19 season, which began on October 1, 2018, by two lakh bales for Maharashtra, compared to its March estimate. Like-wise, for the North Zone, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, CAI has lowered cotton output estimate by one lakh bales each.

“The scarcity of water in some states and uprooting of cotton plants by farmers in about 70-80 per cent area without waiting for 3rd and 4th pickings are the main reasons for reduction in the cotton crop this year,” the CAI said.

Total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2018 to April 2019 is 314 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which consists of the arrival of 278.73 lakh bales up to April 30, 2019, imports of 7.27 lakh bales up to April 30, 2019, and the opening stock at the beginning of season on October 1, 2018 at 28 lakh bales.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2018 to April 2019 at 183.75 lakh bales, while the export shipment of cotton estimated up to April 30, 2019 is 42.50 lakh bales of 170 kg each. Stock at the end of April 2019 is estimated by the CAI at 87.75 lakh bales including 40 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 47.75 lakh bales with CCI, MNCs and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc.).

The yearly balance sheet projected by the CAI estimates total cotton supply till end of the cotton season i.e. up to September 30, 2019 at 374 lakh bales of 170 kg each consisting of the Opening Stock of 28 lakh bales at the beginning of the cotton season, cotton crop for the season estimated at 315 lakh bales and imports estimated by the CAI at 31 lakh bales, which are higher by 16 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s import estimated at 15 lakh bales.

Domestic consumption estimated by the CAI for the entire crop year i.e. up to September 30, 2019 is 315 lakh bales, which is lower by one lakh bales compared to its previous estimate made during last month. The CAI has estimated exports for the season at 46 lakh bales, which are lower by 23 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s cotton exports estimate of 69 lakh bales. The carry over stock estimated at the end of the season is estimated at 13 lakh bales. (RKS)