USDA estimates China marketing year (MY) 2025/26 cotton production at 35.0 million 480-pound bales, up 1 percent from last month, 9 percent from last year, and 20 percent above the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 3.1 million hectares, unchanged from last month, up 5 percent from last year and 3 percent above the 5-year average. Yield is estimated at a record 2,499 kilograms per hectare, up 1 percent from last month, 4 percent from last year, and 17 percent above the 5-year average.

In recent years, yields continue to be significantly above the long-term trend due to the increasing quantity of cotton produced in Xinjiang province, where the yield has nearly doubled compared to elsewhere in the country. More than 90 percent of cotton is now produced in Xinjiang province using pest-resistant, genetically modified cotton seeds under highly mechanized farming and irrigation systems. According to Xinjiang Provincial Statistics Department, approximately 41 percent of cotton is produced by Xinjiang Production and Construction Engineering Corp, and 59 percent is produced by the Local Cooperative System. 

The typical cotton growing season is April to October. In Xinjiang, planting starts in April while on the North China Plain and in the Yangtze River basin planting begins in late April and extends through May. The start-of-season satellite-based derivatives indicated favorable irrigation reservoir levels, soil moisture conditions and crop progress over the main cotton growing areas. These conditions facilitated rapid planting, early crop establishment and development. The observations were also supported by a combination of national and regional crop condition analysis inputs from FAS/Beijing. In Xinjiang, planting was completed within the optimum planting window that typically ends in May. 

According to China Agricultural Supply and Demand Situation Analysis Report (CASDE), cotton in most areas of Xinjiang generally progressed favorably throughout the majority of the growing season ensuring higher yields than in previous years. The favorable crop growth and development was also indicated by the satellite-derived seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In addition to the favorable planting and crop development conditions, farmers continue to be encouraged by the government’s continuation of the target price-based cotton subsidy. The year-to-year 5 percent increase in harvested area is primarily due to marginal area expansion in the major cotton producing province of Xinjiang, while regions outside Xinjiang continued to experience larger area reductions, especially on the North China Plain and in the Yangtze River basin. The significant year-to-year yield increase, especially in Xinjiang, continues to offset planted area reductions on the North China Plain and in the Yangtze River basin, resulting in a significant increase in national cotton production.