* Higher due to a larger-than-expected production deficit * Some traders say the forecast still too low * Good weather has helped soybean crops -ministry (Adds comment, background, detail) BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) - China will import 1.4 million tonnes of cotton in the 2018/19 crop year, its agriculture ministry said on Tuesday, raising its forecast from last month's 1.2 million tonnes. The higher estimate was due to a larger-than-expected production deficit, with Chinese consumption of the fibre growing 1.2 percent from the previous year's level to 8.4 million tonnes, it said. But some traders said the forecast was still too low, with one estimating imports in the range of 1.5 million to 2.5 million tonnes. Agricultural commodities have been at the heart of festering trade frictions between China and the United States. Meanwhile, the ministry repeated that domestic cotton output would fall 5.8 percent to 5.6 million tonnes due to a reduction in planting. "China's cotton production deficit next year is clear," the ministry said in a statement released with its monthly Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE). The forecast comes as the global market waits for Beijing to issue additional import quotas to mills that will allow them to boost their purchases of overseas cotton. The ministry added that although storms and low temperatures had hit top growing region Xinjiang, overall the weather was normal, with yields expected to fall less than 1 percent. Good weather in the northeast has also helped soybean crops, said the ministry, raising its estimate for output of the oilseed by 100,000 tonnes to 15.37 million tonnes. In the southwestern Guangxi region, however, high temperatures and low rainfall in May hampered sugarcane growth, and many parts of Yunnan are also suffering from lower rainfall, the ministry said. However, sugar output forecasts remained the same despite the weather. Key numbers from the Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) 2016/2 2017/2018 2018/2019 2018/2019 Percentage 017 (estimate in (forecast (forecast change June) in May) in June) Corn Plante 36.76 35.45 34.95 34.95 0% d acreag e (mln hectar es) Output 219.55 215.89 209.53 209.53 0.00% (mln tonnes ) Import 2.46 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.00% s (mln tonnes ) Ending 11.21 -6.42 -20.07 -20.07 Stocks (mln tonnes ) Soybea n Plante 7.20 7.78 8.39 8.39 0.00% d acreag e (mln hectar es) Output 12.94 14.55 15.27 15.37 0.65% (mln tonnes ) Import 93.49 95.97 95.65 95.65 0.00% s (mln tonnes ) Ending -1.80 -0.31 -0.50 -0.40 Stocks (mln tonnes ) Cotton Plante 3.10 3.35 3.19 3.19 0.00% d acreag e (mln hectar es) Output 4.82 5.89 5.55 5.55 0.00% (mln tonnes ) Import 1.11 1.10 1.20 1.40 16.67% s (mln tonnes ) Ending 8.75 7.42 6.01 5.95 Stocks (mln tonnes ) Sugar Plante 1.40 1.46 1.52 1.52 0.00% d acreag e (mln hectar es) Cane 1.23 1.27 1.28 1.28 0.00% Beet 0.17 0.19 0.23 0.23 0.00% Output 9.29 10.31 10.68 10.68 0.00% (mln tonnes ) Cane 8.24 9.16 9.25 9.25 0.00% sugar Beet 1.05 1.15 1.43 1.43 0.00% sugar Import 2.29 3.20 3.20 3.20 0.00% s (mln tonnes ) Ending -3.44 -1.61 -1.47 -1.47 Stocks (mln tonnes ) (Reporting by Dominique Patton; Editing by Joseph Radford)Πηγή: Reuters
China increases estimate for 2018/19 cotton imports
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