In 2018/19 season, the new cotton ginning and inspection works start late in Xinjiang, and total ginning volumes and inspection volumes are lower than the corresponding period of last season. In Dec, the ginning and inspection slow down gradually, while the daily work is faster than last season. By Dec 20, the decrement of ginning volumes narrows, while the decrement of inspection volumes maintains at about 200kt. It is expected that cotton output in South Xinjiang may reduce, and that in North Xinjiang may rise in 2018/19 season, therefore, the total output in Xinjiang is likely to rise slightly compared to 2017/18 season, but it is lower than expectation.

Ginning and inspection speed
By Dec 20, 2018 inspection volumes of new cotton reached 4.044 million tons, including 3.857 million tons of Xinjiang cotton, and ginning volumes totaled 4.424 million tons, including 4.32 million tons of cotton from Xinjiang.

By Dec 20, 2017, ginning volumes in Xinjiang were 4.394 million tons. By now, the ginning volumes of Xinjiang cotton were only 80kt lower than last season. As the ginning work is one to two weeks late in 2018, and daily ginning speed is faster than last year, it is expected that the ginning volumes will surpass within one week.

Stepping into Dec, the daily ginning speed slows down gradually, mainly because Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC) suspend operation successively. In 2018/19 season, XPCC experiences restructuring. Some ginning factories are contracted with non-XPCC ginners, so these ginning factories are not only to gin the cotton from XPCC, but also to gin the cotton from local growers, so they try to procure seed cotton with similar quality, which delays the suspension somewhat in North Xinjiang.

In South Xinjiang, market prices have been constantly decreasing since the operation of ginning factories, down to the cost line. Besides, downstream cotton consumption reduces. Cotton in South Xinjiang is with high micronaire, low strength and lower consistency in mature compared with North Xinjiang cotton. Though the color index is better, mills are not very care about the color with good technology. Therefore, the sales of South Xinjiang cotton are hard, and some ginning factories plan to suspend operation in advance. Therefore, the daily ginning speed may slow down later.

According to current trend, the inspection speed may surpass year on year in late Dec.

Ginning distribution in Xinjiang
According to the ginning pattern in 2018/19 season, the non-XPCC in South Xinjiang accounts for about 39%, down 5% year on year, and non-XPCC in North Xinjiang rises by 2% to 24%. XPCC accounts for 37%, up 3% year on year.

This season, the proportion of machine-picked cotton rises in Xinjiang. Under the same planting and growing condition, harvests of hand-picked cotton are better than machine-picked cotton. So the higher machine-picked cotton areas may have cotton reduction risks. Machine-picked cotton harvests and ginning in South Xinjiang are one month later than that of machine-picked cotton in North Xinjiang, dragged down the ginning speed of South Xinjiang.

Ginning volumes change in Xinjiang
In the two largest regions of Xinjiang, Aksu and Kashgar, witness higher ginning volumes than last year, while the ginning volumes in Bayingol are 90kt lower, dragging down the whole volumes in South Xinjiang. In North Xinjiang, the southern regions witness fast ginning work, while in northern regions, the ginning work is slow affected by rainy and snowy weather.

Yearly change of ginning volumes in Xinjiang, by Dec 18, 2018
	Unit: KT	Unit: ton
Aksu	702	16,175
Kashgar	514	611
Bayingol	303	-92,503
Tarbagatay	415	27,608
Changji	264	43,002
Kuitun	164	1,894
Bortala	164	-3,542
Kizilsu Kirghiz	71	-3,108
Hami	31	-4,153
Karamay	34	-179
Turpan	28	1,007
Hkhotan	2	-10,751
Urumqi	8	1,376
Ili		-1,806
companies	180	-63,344
8th Division	488
1st Division	234
7th Division	176
3rd Division	91
6th Division	148
5th Division	85
2rd Division	83
13th Division	28
4th Division	14
10th Division	9

Summary
Currently, the daily ginning speed of cotton is faster than the corresponding period of last season, and the total ginning volumes are expected to surpass within one week. In South Xinjiang, some ginning factories plan to stop production earlier with losses. Besides, the machine-picked cotton in South Xinjiang rises, and may drag down the process. According to current progress, Xinjiang cotton output may rise slightly in 2018/19 season, but be lower than expectations, and output in South Xinjiang is likely to reduce, while that in North Xinjiang to rise.