Cotlook Ltd. cut its forecast for the global-cotton surplus in the year starting Aug. 1 to 1.441 million metric tons from 1.745 million last month because of lower output in the U.S., the leading exporter.

Production will be 24.869 million tons, down from 25.133 million projected in April, Birkenhead, England-based Cotlook, the publisher of a benchmark cotton index, said today in a report. The U.S. harvest may yield 3.116 million tons, down from 3.365 million estimated a month earlier because of “the persistence of drought conditions” in Texas, the largest producing state, the research company said.

Consumption will be 23.428 million tons, up from 23.388 million estimated in April, the data show. China, the worldΆs biggest user, will import 2.5 million tons, more than the 1.5 million forecast last month, according to the report.

The estimated surplus for next year will be down from 3.222 million in the current season, when output of 26.226 million tons will outpace demand of 23 million tons, Cotlook said.

Cotton for July delivery fell 2 percent today to settle at 81.78 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, after touching 81.52 cents, the lowest for a most-active contract since Feb. 26..