U.S. exports in 2016/17 are forecast at 14.0 million bales, a 53-percent increase from the previous season. With global trade expected to rise by less than 4 percent and with stable import forecasts for major U.S. markets, U.S. market share will have to expand significantly in many countries for the forecast to be obtained.
Overall, the U.S. share of world trade is expected to reach 39 percent, up from 26 percent last season, which would be the highest level in 6 years.
Available customs data from countries that account for over two-thirds of total world imports shows that the U.S. share of imports in these markets for the Aug-Dec 2017 period was 36 percent, compared to 27 percent in the same period a year earlier, in line with the overall increase in U.S. trade share indicated by this month’s forecast.
Higher U.S. market share is indicated in nearly all U.S. markets with data reported, with an exceptional increase in Taiwan. The U.S. share of ChinaΆs imports has rebounded remarkably from 11 percent last year (the lowest in over 2 decades) to 35 percent, which is in line with the historical average.
For major markets where there is no timely customs data (specifically Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Bangladesh), reported U.S. exports for the Aug-Feb period are up by more than 140 percent, even though total imports by these countries are expected to show a much lower rate of growth. This further supports the strong growth in U.S. global market share.
