Cotton gained for the fourth time in five sessions on speculation that supply may trail demand in the U.S., the world’s largest exporter.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its outlook for domestic cotton production last week to 17 million bales. It was the first time the government lowered its June forecast from May since 1998. Crops in Texas, the biggest producing state, are suffering after the state’s worst drought in more than a century, and prices have increased 66 percent in the past year.

“People really overestimated what the U.S. crop is going to be,” said Louis Barbera, a broker with VIP Commodities in New York. “They’re estimating about 17 million bales in the last USDA report, when in fact we’re looking at more like 15. The Texas crop is looking at losing 2 million bales alone.”

Cotton for December delivery rose 0.2 cent, or 0.2 percent, to settle at $1.3178 a pound at 2:35 p.m. on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.