Cotton fell from a 15-year high on speculation that India, the world’s second-biggest grower, may ease limits on exports.
India may boost output by 17 percent to a record 34.5 million bales in the next season, said Nayan Mirani, the vice president of Cotton Association of India, a trade group that represents 450 growers, ginners and traders. The government may lift export limits as soon as November, he said yesterday. Before today, cotton prices jumped 61 percent in the past year.
“There’s a good chance that India is going to relax their export requirements,” said Mike Stevens, an independent trader in Mandeville, Louisiana. “I’m expecting today’s high to be a near-term top.”
Cotton for December delivery declined 1.17 cents, or 1.2 percent to settle at 99.62 cents a pound at 3:08 p.m. on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, after touching $1.0334, the highest price for a most-active contract since June 19, 1995.
“There is a possibility the government will increase the export limit at the next review meeting in November,” Mirani said in an interview yesterday in Lubbock, Texas.
India said it would limit exports to 5.5 million bales in the year beginning Oct. 1 in a bid to meet domestic demand. A “prohibitive” duty will be imposed on shipments above that level, Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar said on Sept. 4. A review meeting on exports will be held Nov. 15, he said.
Global cotton use will rise to 120.5 million bales in the year that began Aug. 1, the USDA estimates, outpacing production of 117 million bales. Inventories in warehouses monitored by ICE were down 96 percent this year as of yesterday. A bale weighs about 480 pounds, or 218 kilograms.
The cotton crop in the U.S., the biggest exporter, was rated 58 percent in good or excellent condition as of Sept. 19, down from 59 percent a week earlier, the USDA said on Sept. 20. The country’s harvest was 13 percent completed, compared a five- year average of 10 percent, according to the department.
“Overall the U.S. crop is looking very good,” said Andy Ryan, a senior risk-management consultant at FCStone Fibers & Textiles in Nashville, Tennessee. “Early yields are very promising” in the Mississippi Delta and south Texas, he said.
