COTTON: The U.S. cotton estimates for 2009/10 include
higher domestic mill use and lower ending stocks this month.
Production and exports are unchanged. Domestic mill use
is raised 100,000 bales to 3.5 million, reflecting higher
consumption in the months of November through January.
Ending stocks are forecast at 3.2 million bales, 20.6 percent
of total use. The range for the marketing-year average price
received by producers is raised 1.5 cents on the lower end
and 0.5 cents on the higher end to 60.5 to 65.5 cents per
pound.
A combination of slightly lower production and slightly higher
consumption is reducing forecast world cotton 2009/10
ending stocks from last month. Production is reduced for
China and Uzbekistan, but raised for Brazil and
Turkmenistan. Consumption estimates are raised for Turkey,
Vietnam, and the United States, partially offset by a
reduction for Pakistan, which is based on a recent policy
change to limit yarn exports. World trade is raised 2
percent, reflecting higher imports by China, Turkey, and
Vietnam, which more than offset a decrease for Pakistan.
World stocks are reduced nearly 700,000 bales, a decline of
just over 1 percent from last month.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2007/08 : 119.91 183.04 38.47 122.97 62.66
2008/09 (Est.) : 107.45 170.11 30.18 110.11 62.42
2009/10 (Proj.) :
February : 102.74 165.16 33.77 115.53 52.08
March : 102.24 164.66 34.40 115.70 51.41
: United States
2007/08 : 19.21 28.70 13.65 4.59 10.04
2008/09 (Est.) : 12.82 22.86 13.28 3.59 6.34
2009/10 (Proj.) :
February : 12.40 18.74 12.00 3.40 3.30
March : 12.40 18.74 12.00 3.50 3.20
: Foreign 3/
2007/08 : 100.70 154.34 24.82 118.38 52.61
2008/09 (Est.) : 94.64 147.25 16.90 106.52 56.08
2009/10 (Proj.) :
February : 90.34 146.42 21.77 112.13 48.78
March : 89.84 145.92 22.40 112.20 48.21
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-480-17 March 2010
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2009/10 Projections
Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :===============================
: : Est. : February March
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 10.83 9.47 9.15 9.15
Harvested : 10.49 7.57 7.69 7.69
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 879 813 774 774
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 9.48 10.04 6.34 6.34
Production : 19.21 12.82 12.40 12.40
Imports : 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total : 28.70 22.86 18.74 18.74
Domestic use : 4.59 3.59 3.40 3.50
Exports : 13.65 13.28 12.00 12.00
Use, total : 18.24 16.86 15.40 15.50
Unaccounted 3/ : 0.41 -0.34 0.04 0.04
Ending stocks : 10.04 6.34 3.30 3.20
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 59.3 47.8 59.0-65.0 60.5-65.5
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
===============================================================================
WASDE-480-26 March 2010
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
================================================================================
: Supply : Use : :
Region :=========================:================:
Loss : Ending
:Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports:
2/ : stocks
: stocks : tion : : : : :
================================================================================
:
: 2007/08
:
World : 63.13 119.91 38.99 122.97 38.47 -2.06 62.66
United States : 9.48 19.21 0.01 4.59 13.65 0.41 10.04
Total foreign : 53.66 100.70 38.98 118.38 24.82 -2.47 52.61
Major exporters 4/ : 19.90 46.47 1.56 28.18 21.11 -0.16 18.81
Central Asia 5/ : 2.14 8.20 0.04 1.61 6.35 0.00 2.42
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.06 2.46 3/ 0.19 2.66 0.00 0.67
S. Hemis. 7/ : 7.96 9.72 0.53 6.00 4.09 -0.18 8.30
Australia : 1.18 0.64 3/ 0.05 1.22 -0.05 0.60
Brazil : 5.41 7.36 0.16 4.60 2.23 -0.15 6.25
India : 7.66 24.00 0.60 18.60 7.03 0.00 6.63
Major importers 8/ : 31.73 51.46 34.81 85.75 2.66 -2.31 31.91
Mexico : 1.03 0.62 1.53 2.00 0.22 0.03 0.93
China : 20.54 37.00 11.53 51.00 0.06 -2.50 20.50
EU-27 9/ : 0.83 1.74 1.59 1.81 1.62 0.05 0.67
Turkey : 1.95 3.10 3.27 6.00 0.37 0.00 1.95
Pakistan : 4.88 8.90 3.91 12.00 0.27 0.03 5.39
Indonesia : 0.35 0.03 2.30 2.23 0.02 0.05 0.39
Thailand : 0.35 0.02 1.93 1.95 0.00 0.03 0.32
Bangladesh : 0.59 0.04 3.50 3.50 0.00 0.01 0.62
Vietnam : 0.22 0.03 1.21 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.25
:
: 2008/09 (Estimated)
:
World : 62.66 107.45 30.01 110.11 30.18 -2.59 62.42
United States : 10.04 12.82 3/ 3.59 13.28 -0.34 6.34
Total foreign : 52.61 94.64 30.01 106.52 16.90 -2.25 56.08
Major exporters 4/ : 18.81 42.42 1.54 26.90 13.98 -0.19 22.08
Central Asia 5/ : 2.42 7.12 0.01 1.60 4.45 0.00 3.49
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.67 2.41 3/ 0.19 2.20 0.00 0.70
S. Hemis. 7/ : 8.30 8.68 0.31 5.52 4.60 -0.20 7.38
Australia : 0.60 1.50 3/ 0.05 1.20 -0.07 0.93
Brazil : 6.25 5.48 0.05 4.20 2.74 -0.15 4.99
India : 6.63 22.60 0.80 17.90 2.36 0.00 9.77
Major importers 8/ : 31.91 49.54 26.00 75.39 1.88 -2.06 32.24
Mexico : 0.93 0.58 1.32 1.85 0.18 0.03 0.77
China : 20.50 36.70 7.00 44.00 0.08 -2.25 22.37
EU-27 9/ : 0.67 1.24 0.96 1.14 1.01 0.05 0.66
Turkey : 1.95 1.93 2.89 5.00 0.14 0.00 1.63
Pakistan : 5.39 9.00 1.95 11.50 0.38 0.03 4.44
Indonesia : 0.39 0.03 2.00 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.35
Thailand : 0.32 0.02 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.03 0.30
Bangladesh : 0.62 0.04 3.80 3.75 0.00 0.01 0.70
Vietnam : 0.25 0.01 1.23 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.24
================================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil,
China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.
8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan,
Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
WASDE-480-27 March 2010
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
================================================================================
: Supply : Use : :
Region :=========================:================:
Loss : Ending
:Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports:
2/ : stocks
: stocks : tion : : : : :
================================================================================
:
: 2009/10 (Projected)
World :
February : 62.42 102.74 33.76 115.53 33.77 -2.46 52.08
March : 62.42 102.24 34.39 115.70 34.40 -2.46 51.41
United States :
February : 6.34 12.40 0.01 3.40 12.00 0.04 3.30
March : 6.34 12.40 0.01 3.50 12.00 0.04 3.20
Total foreign :
February : 56.08 90.34 33.76 112.13 21.77 -2.50 48.78
March : 56.08 89.84 34.38 112.20 22.40 -2.50 48.21
Major exporters 4/ :
February : 22.08 42.81 1.36 28.21 18.74 -0.19 19.49
March : 22.08 42.81 1.36 28.21 19.14 -0.19 19.08
Central Asia 5/Feb : 3.49 6.37 0.01 1.59 6.02 0.00 2.26
Mar : 3.49 6.17 0.01 1.59 5.92 0.00 2.16
Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Feb : 0.70 2.38 3/ 0.19 2.26 0.00 0.64
Mar : 0.70 2.38 3/ 0.19 2.26 0.00 0.64
S. Hemis 7/ Feb : 7.38 9.14 0.35 5.51 4.49 -0.20 7.07
Mar : 7.38 9.34 0.35 5.51 4.59 -0.20 7.16
Australia Feb : 0.93 1.75 3/ 0.04 1.70 -0.07 1.01
Mar : 0.93 1.75 3/ 0.04 1.80 -0.07 0.91
Brazil Feb : 4.99 5.55 0.10 4.20 2.00 -0.15 4.59
Mar : 4.99 5.75 0.10 4.20 2.00 -0.15 4.79
India Feb : 9.77 23.50 0.60 19.20 5.70 0.00 8.97
Mar : 9.77 23.50 0.60 19.20 6.10 0.00 8.57
Major importers 8/ :
February : 32.24 45.02 29.77 79.70 2.00 -2.31 27.64
March : 32.24 44.52 30.39 79.77 2.24 -2.31 27.46
Mexico Feb : 0.77 0.42 1.50 1.90 0.10 0.03 0.66
Mar : 0.77 0.42 1.50 1.90 0.10 0.03 0.67
China Feb : 22.37 32.00 9.00 47.50 0.08 -2.50 18.29
Mar : 22.37 31.50 9.50 47.50 0.08 -2.50 18.29
EU-27 9/ Feb : 0.66 1.01 0.92 1.00 1.07 0.05 0.47
Mar : 0.66 1.01 0.92 1.00 1.07 0.05 0.47
Turkey Feb : 1.63 1.70 3.30 5.10 0.13 0.00 1.41
Mar : 1.63 1.70 3.50 5.30 0.15 0.00 1.38
Pakistan Feb : 4.44 9.80 2.75 12.00 0.50 0.03 4.46
Mar : 4.44 9.80 2.50 11.75 0.70 0.03 4.26
Indonesia Feb : 0.35 0.03 2.08 2.05 0.02 0.05 0.33
Mar : 0.35 0.03 2.08 2.05 0.02 0.05 0.33
Thailand Feb : 0.30 0.01 1.80 1.78 0.00 0.03 0.31
Mar : 0.30 0.01 1.80 1.78 0.01 0.03 0.30
Bangladesh Feb : 0.70 0.04 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.01 0.73
Mar : 0.70 0.04 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.01 0.73
Vietnam Feb : 0.24 0.01 1.35 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.25
Mar : 0.24 0.01 1.50 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.30
================================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and
the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on
supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales.
4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed.
5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad,
Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia,
Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the
countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea,
and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
